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Jim Wyckoff's grain and market commentary - TheCropSite Understanding "Wyckoff's Market Rating System"

Welcome to our Jim Wyckoff Grain Markets page. Jim has spent nearly 30 years involved with the commodity, stock, financial and currency markets. He started his career as a financial journalist and covered every futures market traded in the US. He has also covered and analyzed overseas markets.

It didn't take Jim long to realize the successful traders and analysts in every market—be it pork bellies, Treasury bonds or stock index futures—had a common thread among them: nearly all relied on technical analysis to give them an edge. Jim studies the traditional supply and demand fundamentals of the market place and combines his technical analysis to make recommendations using his Wyckoff's Market Rating System.

Understanding "Wyckoff's Market Rating System"

My market updates displays the exclusive "Wyckoff's Market Rating System" for each market. I distill risk, probability, technical indicators, fundamental analysis and many other factors in determining these ratings. This simple system can be your quick key to how strongly the markets are trending, (if they are).

How it Works

Wyckoff's Market Rating System is based on a scale of 1 to 10, with 1 being the most bearish market rating and 10 being the most bullish market rating. The number 5 would be a neutral rating. And it is not uncommon to see fractions used – like 1.5, 3.5, etc. – if conditions warrant.

It's important to note that just because a market is rated as very bullish (8 or above), it does not mean I want to establish a fresh long position in that market. A high rating likely means a market has been trending higher for a sustained period of time, or has already seen a quick, powerful move that could mean a "correction" is near. An 8 or higher bull market is likely a more mature one – with the risks being higher for steeper setbacks and a more volatile topping process.

Similarly, a market rated as very bearish (2 or below) does not indicate you should rush out to establish a fresh short position and sell a market. It means a market has likely been in a longer-term downtrend, or has seen a quick and powerful down-move, and is at or near its contract low. It is a more mature bear market that has a higher risk of a corrective bounce higher, or even change in trend to sideways to higher.

Markets rated 4 to 6 are in the middle, and these are the markets I watch most closely, on a shorter-term basis, for trading opportunities. They are usually characterized by more of a "sideways" and choppier trading range on the daily chart, or have just backed well off from a recent up-trend high or have moved well up from a recent downtrend low.

Importantly, markets that have been in sideways trading ranges for a while – i.e., non-trending and then move to either a rating of 5.5 to 6.5 on an upside price move, or to 4.5 to 3.5 on a downside move – are the most critical to monitor on a daily chart basis. It's at these ratings levels that most trading "set ups" occur, based on my trading philosophy and experience. It's at these ratings which are just above or just below neutral (5) that most "breakouts" from trading ranges occur. But remember, the market has to have been trading generally (but not always) sideways beforehand, for the best trading opportunities to present themselves.

For example, let's say soybeans, on a daily chart basis, had been rated between 4.5 and 5.5 for several weeks. Then one day prices pop above a congestion area on the daily bar chart and are then rated a 6. That's likely when a good trading "set up" on the long side can occur. Or, let's say the Euro currency has been trading between 4.5 and 5.5 for several weeks, and then prices dip enough to drop below a recent trading range and trigger a 4 rating. That would likely be a good trading opportunity on the short side. Keep in mind that markets rated at 5.5 or 4.5 can also trigger trading opportunities, if chart and fundamental conditions warrant.

Being a conservative trader, I like to trade markets that are just beginning to establish a solid trend. The risk for high volatility (and bigger losses) is lower when a trend is in its early stages, as opposed to when a trend is mature and higher volatility is more likely. Wyckoff's Market Rating System helps me determine the stages of a market trend.

Here's an important reminder. My Wyckoff's Market Rating System is not and should not be used as a "stand-alone" trading system. But it can be a valuable trading tool in your "Trading Toolbox."

Jim Wyckoff

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Jim's Video

Jim's Futures Commentary

Wednesday, October 01, 2014
Wyckoff's Closing Grains: Corn Closed Lower
US - December corn futures closed down 5 3/4 cents at $3.20 today. ...
Tuesday, September 30, 2014
Wyckoff's Closing Grains: Corn Closed Higher
US - December corn futures closed up 1 1/2 cents at $3.24 1/2 today. ...
Monday, September 29, 2014
Jim Wyckoff's Morning Report: Will Hong Kong Protests Affect Markets?
GLOBAL - China is celebrating a week-long national holiday this week, which could make for quieter trading in many markets. The market place is also keeping...
Friday, September 26, 2014
Wyckoff's Closing Grains: Corn Closed Lower
US - December corn futures closed down 3 3/4 cents at $3.25 3/4 today. ...
Friday, September 26, 2014
Jim Wyckoff's Morning Report: Markets Weaker Overnight
GLOBAL - In overnight news, Asian and European stock markets followed Wall Street’s Thursday lead to trade lower Friday. ...
Thursday, September 25, 2014
Wyckoff's Closing Grains: Corn Closed 4 Cents Up
US - December corn futures closed up 4 cents at $3.29 1/2 today....
Thursday, September 25, 2014
Jim Wyckoff's Morning Report: US Dollar Surges Against Other Currencies
GLOBAL - A feature in the market place this week has been the surging U.S. dollar versus most of the other major world currencies. ...
Wednesday, September 24, 2014
Wyckoff's Closing Grains: Corn Closed Lower
US - December corn futures closed down 4 1/2 cents at $3.25 3/4 Tuesday. ...
Wednesday, September 24, 2014
Jim Wyckoff's Morning Report: Risk Aversion Remains Across Markets
GLOBAL - There is still some risk aversion in the market place Wednesday following this week’s U.S. airstrikes that hit ISIS terrorists at several locations...
Tuesday, September 23, 2014
Wyckoff's Closing Grains: Corn Closed Lower
US - December corn futures closed down 1 1/4 cents at $3.30 1/4 Monday. ...
Tuesday, September 23, 2014
Jim Wyckoff's Morning Report: Markets Rocked by US Airstrikes on ISIS
GLOBAL - There is risk aversion back in the market place Tuesday following reports overnight that U.S. airstrikes hit the ISIS terrorists at several locations...
Tuesday, September 23, 2014
Wyckoff's Weekly Grain Outlook: New Contract Lows in Grain Markets
ANALYSIS - Markets were narrowly mixed in overnight trading. Corn, soybeans and wheat prices are hovering near their recent contract lows. ...
Monday, September 22, 2014
Jim Wyckoff's Morning Report: Markets Mainly Lower Overnight
GLOBAL - In overnight news, China’s finance minister said his nation will not offer a more stimulative domestic monetary policy or other economic stimulus...
Friday, September 19, 2014
Wyckoff's Closing Grains: Corn Closed Lower
US - December Corn closed down 3 1/2-cents at 3.38 1/4. December corn closed lower on Thursday as forecasts for dry weather that should help the corn crop...
Thursday, September 18, 2014
Wyckoff's Closing Grains: Corn Closed Lower
US - December Corn closed down 2-cents at 3.41 3/4. December corn closed lower on Wednesday. ...
Wednesday, September 17, 2014
Wyckoff's Closing Grains: Corn Closed Higher
US - December Corn closed up 3/4-cents at 3.43 3/4. December corn closed fractionally higher due to short covering on Tuesday. ...
Wednesday, September 17, 2014
Jim Wyckoff's Morning Report: Investors Await Interest Rates Decision
GLOBAL - The December NASDAQ 100 was lower overnight as investors await the Federal Reserve's decision regarding interest rates. ...
Tuesday, September 16, 2014
Wyckoff's Closing Grains: Corn Closed Higher
US - December Corn closed up 4 1/2-cents at 3.43. December corn closed higher due to short covering on Monday triggered by wild scale frost across the...
Tuesday, September 16, 2014
Jim Wyckoff's Morning Report: Risk-averse Mood in Market Place
GLOBAL - The December NASDAQ 100 was lower overnight as investors have moved into a risk-averse mood ahead of the Federal Open Market meeting. ...
Monday, September 15, 2014
Jim Wyckoff's Morning Report: Corn Lower Overnight
GLOBAL - The December NASDAQ 100 was lower overnight and posted its lowest level since August 22nd. ...
Friday, September 12, 2014
Wyckoff's Closing Grains: Corn Closed Lower
US - December corn futures closed down 4 1/4 cents at $3.41 1/2 Thursday....
Friday, September 12, 2014
Jim Wyckoff's Morning Report: Rare Upbeat Economic Data
GLOBAL - In overnight news, there was a rare upbeat economic report from the European Union. ...
Thursday, September 11, 2014
Wyckoff's Closing Grains: Corn Closed Higher
US - December corn futures closed up 2 cents at $3.46 1/4 Wednesday. ...
Wednesday, September 10, 2014
Wyckoff's Closing Grains: Corn Closed Lower
US - December corn futures closed down 4 cents at $3.44 1/4 Tuesday. ...
Tuesday, September 09, 2014
Wyckoff's Closing Grains: Corn Closed Lower
US - December Corn closed down 7 3/4-cents at 3.48 1/4. December corn closed lower on Monday as freeze concerns across the northern Plains and upper...
Tuesday, September 09, 2014
Wyckoff's Weekly Grain Outlook: Record Corn, Soy Harvest Likely
ANALYSIS - Grain market bears are still in full command at the start of the week, with a record corn and soybean harvest predicted, reports Jim Wyckoff...
Monday, September 08, 2014
Jim Wyckoff's Morning Report: China Trade Hits Record High
GLOBAL - In overnight news, China’s trade surplus hit a record high in August, at $49.8 billion, and well above market expectations. ...
Friday, September 05, 2014
Wyckoff's Closing Grains: Corn Closed Lower
US - December corn futures closed down 5 1/2 cents at $3.46 1/2 Thursday....
Thursday, September 04, 2014
Wyckoff's Closing Grains: Corn Closed Lower
US - December corn futures closed 11 cents at $3.52 1/2 Wednesday. Prices closed near the session low and hit a contract low today....
Thursday, September 04, 2014
Jim Wyckoff's Morning Report: Markets Await Bank Report
US - Traders are awaiting this week’s big--and arguably the biggest of the month--economic data points--Thursday’s European Central Bank meeting and...

Jim's Info Charts

Jim Wyckoff's grain and market commentary - TheCropSite
News from US 4 September 2014
Jim Wyckoff's grain and market commentary - TheCropSite
News from US 4 September 2014
Jim Wyckoff's grain and market commentary - TheCropSite
News from US 4 September 2014

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