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CME: Corn Futures Closed Higher Wednesday

09 February 2012

US - March Corn finished up 1/4 at 642 1/2, 6 1/4 off the high and 10 1/2 up from the low. May Corn closed down 1/2 at 648. This was 10 1/2 up from the low and 5 3/4 off the high.

March corn closed slightly higher on the session and December corn slightly lower. The early rally pushed the market up to a new high for the week but resistance at last week's highs held and the market broke sharply lower on the day into the mid-session and down to the lowest level since January 31st. March had a 16 3/4 cent range with volatile, two-sided trade.

Outside market forces shifted from positive to negative and back to slightly positive on the session talk of a weaker demand tone due to poor ethanol plant profit margins helped to spark long liquidation selling. Ethanol production for the week ending February 3rd averaged 923,000 barrels per day. This is down 1.7% vs. last week and up 2.6% vs. last year.

Total Ethanol production for the week was 6.461 million barrels. Corn used in last week's production is estimated at 98.32 million bushels. Corn use needs to average 94.619 million bushels per week to meet this crop year's USDA estimate of 5 billion bushels. Weekly production was down to the lowest level since the week of November 18th.

Stocks were 21.063 million barrels. This is up 0.56% vs. last week and up 7.6% vs. last year and another new all-time high. For the USDA Supply/demand update for release in the morning, traders see US ending stocks revised down and US exports revised up by about 50-75 million bushels with the other demand numbers left unchanged.

Traders also see a sharp revision lower in South America production and declining world corn ending stocks. For the weekly export sales report, also released before the opening, traders expect sales for corn sales near 975,000 tonnes from 974,900 last week. March Rice finished up 0.1 at 14.205, 0.015 off the high and 0.155 up from the low.

Wheat Futures Closed Lower

March Wheat finished down 1 1/2 at 660 3/4, 9 1/4 off the high and 7 3/4 up from the low. July Wheat closed down 5 3/4 at 679. This was 6 up from the low and 11 1/2 off the high. March wheat closed slightly lower on the session after a volatile two-sided 17 cent trading range.

A turn from lower to higher for the US dollar and weakness in outside market forces helped drag the market from higher to lower on the day into the mid-session. The early rally challenged yesterday's highs and the mid-session break pushed March and July wheat to the lowest level since January 31st.

A sharp break in corn and weakness in gold and the stock market helped to drive the market to the lows of the day into the mid-session. Talk of the overbought condition of the market and ideas that warmer weather in Europe will ease crop concerns soon helped to pressure. For the USDA Supply/demand update for release in the morning, traders see world and US ending stocks down slightly from last months report.

For the weekly export sales report, also released before the opening, traders expect sales near 550,000 tonnes from 554,100 last week. March Oats closed up 1/4 at 328. This was 5 3/4 up from the low and 3/4 off the high.

Soybean Futures Closed Lower

March Soybeans finished down 1/2 at 1231 1/2, 13 1/4 off the high and 8 3/4 up from the low. May Soybeans closed down 1 at 1240. This was 8 1/2 up from the low and 13 off the high. March Soymeal closed down 3.7 at 321.7. This was 2.4 up from the low and 6.9 off the high. March Soybean Oil finished up 0.41 at 52.58, 0.19 off the high and 0.52 up from the low.

March soybeans closed slightly lower on the session after a 22 cent two-sided and volatile trading session. A weaker US dollar and optimism overnight for a Greek bailout package helped to support the market early in the session. However, a turn down in the US stock market, a rally in the US dollar and talk that better weather seems to be stabilizing crop estimates for South America helped to spark long liquidation selling pressures and a move lower on the day into the mid-session.

Good rains in Argentina areas overnight has many traders talking about improving crop conditions ahead. March oil pushed higher and to the highest level since January 5th while March meal pushed sharply lower into the mid-session and to a 4-session low.

For the USDA Supply/demand update for release in the morning, traders see little change for the US report but a sharp reduction in production from South America production. For the weekly export sales report, also released before the opening, traders expect sales for soybeans near 625,000 tonnes from 368,400 last week. Meal is expected near 125,000 and oil at 7,500 tonnes.


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