USDA: US Oilseed Producers Likely to Benefit
10 February 2012
US - Producers are likely to benefit from recent cuts in South American 2012 soybean crops soon to be harvested and marketed in competition against the US 2011 crop.
Dry weather has reduced area and yield that will adversely impact export availability in the coming months.
This production decline along with record October-December exports and crush has reduced forecast supply 6 million tons from the previous year and 10 million tons from the December forecast. With global import demand expected to be 3 million tons higher than last year for the 2012 January-September period, there should be ample opportunity for the US to carve out additional sales.
In contrast, the US is expected to have ample supplies ready for export in September 2012. With South American supplies on September 1st expected to be down nearly 9 million tons from last year, it is extremely unlikely that we will see a repeat of the 50 percent drop in US export volume (15 million tons) in the September – December period.
Further Reading
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February 2012
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