CME: Corn Futures Closed Higher Monday
14 February 2012
US - March Corn finished up 7 3/4 at 639 1/2, 4 off the high and 6 3/4 up from the low. May Corn closed up 7 1/2 at 643. This was 6 1/2 up from the low and 3 1/2 off the high.
March corn closed moderately higher on the session as fund buyers emerged late in the day to pull the market off of the late-session lows. A bullish tilt to outside market forces like the stock market and the US dollar weakness were factors to support the market early.
Sluggish export news and news of negative profit margins for processing plants for the third week in a row helped to limit the advance. A bounce off of the lows for the UAS dollar and weakness in metal markets may have sparked some of the selling after the early bounce. Weekly export inspections came in at 29.01 million bushels which was well below trade expectations.
Export shipments need to average just 31 million bushels per week for the rest of the 2011/12 season to reach the projection. Shipments have reached 44.9 per cent of the USDA forecast for the season as compared with 42.8 per cent as the 5-year average for this time of the year. The USDA baseline outlook for the 2012 season shows total planted area at 94 million acres from 91.9 million this season.
Ending stocks for the 2012/13 season would come in at 1.623 million bushels as compared with 801 million for this season. This is not surveyed data but just the initial best-guess estimates from the USDA put together in November as part of the budget process. This would be the highest planted area since 1944. March Rice finished up 0.42 at 14.135, equal to the high and 0.135 up from the low.
Wheat Futures Closed Higher
March Wheat finished up 11 1/4 at 641 1/4, 1 1/4 off the high and 10 up from the low. July Wheat closed up 8 3/4 at 657 1/4. This was 10 3/4 up from the low and 2 3/4 off the high. March wheat closed sharply higher on the session as fund buyers were active late in the day to push the market up to new highs into the close. The market stayed inside of Friday's range.
A milder forecast for temperatures in Europe and a continued outlook for rising ending stocks in the US by the USDA Baseline report helped to support. The weaker US dollar, a jump in equity prices and news that Egypt bought US wheat for the first time since June helped to support the market. Libya tendered to buy 63,000 tonnes of milling wheat.
Weekly export inspections came in at 16.5 million bushels which was at the low end of trade expectations. Export shipments need to average just 16.5 million bushels per week for the rest of the 2011/12 season to reach the projection. Shipments have reached 72.7 per cent of the USDA forecast for the season as compared with 70.5 per cent as the 5-year average for this time of the year. News that the US received at least some of the Egypt tender business over the weekend helped to support.
Egypt announced a tender after the close Friday and on Saturday bought 55,000 tonnes of US soft red winter, 300,000 tonnes from France and 240,000 tonnes of wheat from Argentina. The USDA baseline outlook for the 2012 season shows total planted area at 56.5 million acres from 54.4 million this season.
Ending stocks for the 2012/13 season would come in at 887 million bushels as compared with 845 million for this season. This is not surveyed data but just the initial best-guess estimates from the USDA put together in November as part of the budget process. March Oats closed up 7 at 325. This was 6 up from the low and 1 off the high.
Soybean Futures Closed Higher
March Soybeans finished up 25 at 1254, equal to the high and 22 up from the low. May Soybeans closed up 22 1/2 at 1260. This was 19 1/2 up from the low and 1 1/2 off the high. March Soymeal closed up 10.5 at 330.5.
This was 10.0 up from the low and 0.5 off the high. March Soybean Oil finished up 0.52 at 53.05, equal to the high and 0.43 up from the low. March soybeans saw strong gains early in the session and after giving back a good part of the early gains into late in the session, fund buyers emerged late in the day to drive the market to new highs into the close to close sharply higher on the day. Less support from metal markets and a minor recovery from the lows in the US dollar helped to spark a long liquidation selling trend late in the day.
The early weakness in the US dollar on progress in Greece plus a more positive tilt to commodity markets in general on ideas of improving global economy helped support the strong gains early in the session today. In addition, renewed concerns for the southern Brazil crop conditions with dry weather early this week and dry/hot weather for later this week helped to support. The early rally pushed the market to the highest level since October 28th.
Private exporters reported to the USDA this morning a sale of 120,000 tonnes of soybeans to unknown destination for the 2012/13 season. Ideas that China may buy a large quantity of soybeans this week with the China delegation in the country added to the positive. Weekly export inspections came in at 38.6 million bushels which was right in line with expectations.
Export shipments need to average just 16.4 million bushels per week for the rest of the 2011/12 season to reach the projection. Shipments have reached 62.3 per cent of the USDA forecast for the season as compared with 65 per cent as the 5-year average for this time of the year. The USDA baseline outlook for the 2012 season shows total planted area at 74 million acres from 75 million this season. Ending stocks for the 2012/13 season would come in at 209 million bushels as compared with 275 million for this season and this assumes a record yield of 44 bushels per acre.
This is not surveyed data but just the initial "best-guess" estimates from the USDA put together in November as part of the budget process. In a few weeks, the USDA Outlook conference will give more up-to-date readings for the new crop supply/demand outlook. For the January NOPA crush report for release ahead of the opening, traders see the crush near 143.3 million bushels as compared with 145.4 million in December at 144.6 million last year.
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