HGCA: Global Grain Forecast
14 February 2012
GLOBAL - After a strong start prices fell at the end of last week after the USDA report failed to provide new supportive information. In line with pre-report estimates the Argentine maize crop was reduced by 4Mt but expectations for a lower Brazilian crop were not realised.
According to HGCA, global maize production was estimated at 864Mt (868Mt Jan). Higher opening stocks and production saw global wheat closing stocks at record levels of 213Mt. For soyabeans limited reactions were seen as 5.5Mt cuts to South American crops were expected and US stocks were left unchanged.
Egypt bought 55,000t of US wheat over the weekend at a $20/t (FOB) discount to EU origins. This, alongside news of a potential Greek debt resolution, may be supportive; US wheat has potential to trade higher but still retain export competitiveness. LIFFE May wheat was trading at £166.25/t (-£0.5) yesterday.
South America: cold front brought rain to Brazil's grain belt helping soyabean crops in the south and the winter maize crop, but slowing harvest in other areas. However rains arrived too late for some regions. Buenos Aires Grains Exchange reduced its 2011/12 Argentine maize crop estimate to 21.3Mt (22Mt).
US: Very early indications suggest US farmers expect to plant the largest maize area since WW2. A Reuters survey reports a possible 94.2M acres to be planted (91.9M acres 2011). Illinois is experiencing its sixth warmest winter in 117 years.
EU/N Africa: Cold weather spreading from Europe into North Africa has helped grain crops in Algeria and Tunisia by breaking a severe drought.
The spring grain harvest in Russia for 2012 is forecast at 50-55Mt with the total grain harvest estimated to reach over 90Mt (93.9Mt in 2011). The condition of winter crops is good with losses forecast below average, at 6 per cent.
Despite severe frost in late January and early February, Ukraine's winter grains condition was unchanged as of 3 February, with around 26.8 per cent in good condition.
Russia resumed grain loading to the ships at the Black Sea port of Novorossiysk, which handles around 20 per cent of exports, after storms forced the port to close (Interfax). Problems with supply of Black Sea Grains have driven some importers to buy from other suppliers. Spain, a traditional importer of feed wheat from Ukraine and Russia, has purchased 200,000t of US wheat.
Argentina's Institute for National Agricultural Technology has increased their soyabean crop estimates to 47Mt (43Mt previous est.), following recent storms in the Pampas grain belt.
Paraguay's soyabean production is expected to fall by 45 per cent from last season's record, to 4.6Mt, due to drought. Early estimates suggest the area has been reduced by 35-40 per cent.
AgroConsult have reduced Brazil's 2011/12 soyabean production estimate to 71Mt due to drought conditions.
Frost and -29 to -30 degree temperatures have damaged Ukrainian winter rape crops at the sprouting stage, requiring replanting of an estimated 300,000 hectares.
China, the world's largest soyabean buyer, is likely to increase soyabean imports from the US due to a poor domestic crop and South American drought.
| TheCropSite News Desk |
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