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CME: Corn Futures Closed Down Monday

10 April 2012

US - May Corn finished down on Monday in the latest CME report.

Corn

May Corn finished down 9 1/4 at 649, 15 1/4 off the high and 1/2 up from the low. July Corn closed down 11 at 641 1/4. This was equal to the low and 16 1/4 off the high. May corn opened 1/4 cent lower from the close posted last Thursday but eventually corn managed a sharp range down move on the charts. It is possible that the reversal in November soybeans provided some additive pressure to corn today.

Many traders think that corn was seeing fresh pressure from changing views toward the upcoming report, while others think the lack of a distinct frost impact might have caused some of the selling today, as the market at times last week was pricing in the prospect of some frost damage. With a hard range down move in US equities today and with US grain inspections for corn this morning of only 22.364 million bushels this morning (off expectations of 28 to 32 million bushels) the inspections news might have been considered a little bearish toward corn prices today.

While some analysts think that US corn stocks might be reduced in the USDA report Tuesday, that theory might have been mostly factored into corn prices with the rallies between March 29th and April 3rd. It is also possible that the corn trade was factoring in a record pace of US corn plantings as that report was due out after the Tuesday US trade window. May Rice finished down 0.17 at 14.875, 0.025 off the high and 0.075 up from the low.

Soybean

May Soybeans finished down 3 at 1431, 15 3/4 off the high and 7 1/2 up from the low. July Soybeans closed down 3 at 1434 3/4. This was 6 1/2 up from the low and 16 1/4 off the high. May Soymeal closed down 3.1 at 388.8. This was 1.5 up from the low and 6.9 off the high. May Soybean Oil finished up 0.07 at 56.71, 0.47 off the high and 0.23 up from the low. After making a minor new high for the move early today, the May soybean market fell back in what many suggested was a profit taking or position balancing reaction ahead of the coming USDA report.

The November soybeans forged an even wider range today, suggesting that the difference in opinion between old and new crop soybean markets remains rather significant. US soybean export inspections were seen at 26.39 million bushels from 29.5 million last week and that compares to estimates of 24 to 28 million. Perhaps the soybean market was also seeing some pressure from the prospect of precipitation in the southern US for later this week.

As in other physical commodity markets, weakness in equities and adverse currency market action could have been an excuse to bank some long profits in soybeans ahead of a critical junction on Tuesday. While USDA report later in the year might take on more importance than the Tuesday report, the markets are still on edge because of the fear of tightening balance sheets.

Wheat

May Wheat finished up 4 1/2 at 643, 6 off the high and 6 1/2 up from the low. July Wheat closed up 2 3/4 at 649. This was 4 3/4 up from the low and 6 1/4 off the high. May wheat opened higher on the session and generally managed to remain in positive ground throughout the US trade.

The market seemed to get an early bounce on short covering off ongoing fears of cold weather and perhaps from position squaring ahead of the Tuesday USDA report. However, the wheat market quickly traded back toward the near the lows of the day, as the fear of cold declined and outside market forces stepped and weighed on a number of physical commodity markets like wheat.

Weekly USDA wheat export inspections, released 1/2 hour after the open, came in at 17.605 million bushels, which was about as expected. Inspections for the previous week were revised up from 15.391 million to 15.835 million. May Oats closed up 1 1/4 at 338 1/4. This was 2 up from the low and 3 3/4 off the high.


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