CME: Corn Futures Closed Higher Thursday04 May 2012
May corn closed 8 1/2 cents higher, July up 3 and December down just 1 1/2 cents with a strong recovery late in the day. The old crop tightness, a very strong cash market and ideas that the USDA will need to raise exports and tighten old crop ending stocks further in next week's Supply/demand update has helped to support the nearby contracts.
An excellent weather outlook plus the early plantings has traders inching up their yield projections for the new crop season. After a few more days of warm and wet weather across the heart of the Midwest, the weather looks cooler and warmer for several days before more rains move in. This should help keep planters moving but just not at the record-setting pace of early spring.
The weather is also considered favorable for the crops which have been planted. Net weekly export sales for corn, came in at 1.332 metric tonnes for the current marketing year and 2.14 million for the next marketing year for a total of 3.472 million tonnes.
Cumulative corn sales stand at 86.4 per cent of the USDA forecast for 2011/2012 (current) marketing year versus a 5 year average of 82.0 per cent. Sales of 321,000 metric tonnes are needed each week to reach the USDA forecast.
Traders indicated that the combined sales for the week were at the highest weekly total since 1991. The lack of deliveries and news that Argentina will not export corn to China until more of the GMO details are worked out helped to support the nearby contracts. July Rice finished up 0.33 at 15.185, 0.035 off the high and 0.205 up from the low.
Soybean Futures Closed Lower
July Soybeans finished down 11 1/2 at 1473 1/2, 15 1/4 off the high and 8 up from the low. November Soybeans closed down 1/2 at 1367 3/4. This was 5 3/4 up from the low and 6 off the high. July Soymeal closed down 3.3 at 426.4. This was 2.0 up from the low and 4.7 off the high. July Soybean Oil finished down 0.55 at 54.16, 0.7 off the high and 0.14 up from the low. July soybeans closed moderately lower while November closed just a bit lower on the session.
Long liquidation selling from fund traders was active for much of the session with plenty of talk that fund traders own a record high net long position in both soybeans and meal by a significant margin. This, along with the key reversal yesterday has attracted profit-taking ahead of next week's Supply/demand update. After a very bullish weekly sales report, the market was expected to open higher but ideas that the China buying is near complete for now and a negative tilt to outside market forces and weather helped to pressure the market early.
December meal recovered from lower on the session to close near unchanged as well while December oil pushed sharply lower on the day to experience the lowest close since March 29th. Palm oil futures in Malaysia were down 2.4 per cent overnight to help pressure oil. Weekly export sales for soybeans came in at 598,000 metric tonnes for the current marketing year and 1.134 million for the next marketing year for a total of 1.732 million tonnes.
Traders expected near 1.3-1.5 million. Cumulative old crop soybean sales stand at 96.9 per cent of the USDA forecast versus a 5 year average of 95.4 per cent. Sales of 60,000 tonnes are needed each week to reach the USDA forecast. Meal sales were 59,000 metric tonnes for the current marketing year and 92,700 for the next marketing year for a total of 151,700.
Cumulative soybean meal sales stand at 78.6 per cent of the USDA forecast for 2011/2012 (current) marketing year versus a 5 year average of 75.7 per cent. Sales of 76,000 metric tonnes are needed each week to reach the USDA forecast. Net oil sales came in at 14,900 metric tonnes for the current marketing year and none for the next marketing year for a total of 14,900.
Ideas that China could soon shift to using more government-own reserves helped to pressure the market some yesterday. Private exporters reported the sale of 232,000 tonnes of US soybeans to China for the 2012/13 season.
Wheat Futures Closed Higher
July Wheat finished up 1 at 615 1/2, 6 1/4 off the high and 2 1/4 up from the low. December Wheat closed up 3 at 656 3/4. This was 4 1/4 up from the low and 3 3/4 off the high. July wheat gave back the early gains to close near unchanged.
July KC wheat held on to gain a few cents on the day and Minneapolis July wheat fell to new lows for the move and to the lowest level since November of 2010. On top of reports from Kansas of good yield potential, traders also view the outlook for more rain in the plains in the next week and a lack of cold weather as a bearish influence.
However, talk that the sharp sell-off yesterday was a bit overdone helped to support a bounce early yesterday. Weekly export sales for wheat came in at 256,700 metric tonnes for the current marketing year and 454,800 for the next marketing year for a total of 711,500.
As of April 26th, cumulative wheat sales stand at 100.2 per cent of the USDA forecast for 2011/2012 (current) marketing year versus a 5 year average of 96.4 per cent. European milling wheat futures pushed to a two-week low pressued by talk of improving weather in France. July Oats closed up 7 1/4 at 344 1/2. This was 15 1/2 up from the low and 2 1/2 off the high.