Argentinian Wheat, Barley Exports Up, Rice, Corn Lower08 May 2012
ARGENTINA - Wheat exports for 2011/12 are forecast up at 10 million tons as ending stocks are expected to drop. Barley production in 2011/12 is up at 4.4 million tons as result of a larger harvested acreage. This will allow additional exports, now set at 3.4 million tons. Production and exports of corn are down in 2011/12 due to lower yields than expected. Exports of rice in 2011/12 are estimated to drop 50,000 tons from USDA’s number as exports in 2010/11 were higher than expected, reducing ending stocks.
Wheat: Exports for crop 2011/12 are projected at 10,000 metric tons, higher than USDA’s number, as a result of expected lower ending stocks than estimated by USDA. The Ministry of Agriculture is aware of the problems of the domestic wheat market and it is expected to continue working in solutions to encourage producers to reduce their high stocks. Post continues to estimate planted acreage for 2012/13 at 4 million hectares, although there are many who believe that planted area will be reduced even further.
Barley: Production for crop 2011/12 is forecast up at 4.4 million tons, with a total of 1.16 million hectares. Additional hectares at very good yields justify the 10 per cent increase from USDA’s number. This additional supply is expected to augment exports, now estimated at 3.4 million tons, 400,000 tons higher than USDA’s estimate. Over 65 per cent will be feed barley. There is sufficient seed available to increase planted area to 1.5 million hectares in crop 2012/13.
Corn: Post estimated production for crop 2011/12 at 21.2 million tons, 300,000 lower than USDA’s current number. Although less than 50 per cent of the harvest was done, producers are now harvesting soybeans and when finished will return to the harvest of corn, average yields are low due primarily to the severe drought and high temperatures during summer. Late planted corn, roughly estimated at about 25 per cent of the total, is in excellent conditions, with expected yields of 8-9 tons per hectare. Most local estimates for corn production range between 19-22 million tons. Lower production plus a smaller beginning stock (exports in 2010/11 were finally 300,000 tons higher than expected) are expected to reduce exports by 700,000 tons in crop 2011/12.
Rice: Production for 2011/12 is estimated somewhat lower at 1.47 million tons (rough) as average yields in the northern part of the country are a little bit worse than expected. Exports in 2011/12 are forecast down by 50,000 tons, due to smaller production and because beginning stocks in 2011/12 were lower due to higher exports than estimated in 2010/11.
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