China Soybean Demand Continues to Rise14 May 2012
CHINA - While record early season sales have not been indicative of future exports, it does highlight the growing demand for soybean imports by China and their need to ensure adequate supplies.
This can be seen in trends over the past 5 years where China’s import demand has grown by 50 per cent (20 million tons) while early season purchases of new crop beans through April have risen from near zero to the current 7.1 million tons.
Given the expanding import demand by China, this trend toward greater forward purchasing constitutes a significant change in buying patterns.
Given the recent crop losses in South America and tight supply situation, US exports are currently forecast at record for 2012/13.
Global soybean production in 2011/12 is lower due to reduced South American crops. Global trade is higher on stronger imports by China. World import demand for soybean meal and oil is marginally lower. US exports are up and the season average farm price is raised to a record.
For 2012/13, prevailing strong prices are expected to lead to a record global soybean production. Import demand is forecast to rise driven by China, Vietnam, Taiwan, and Indonesia.
Trade for soybean meal is forecast to expand, while decline for soybean oil. US soybean production and exports are forecast higher. US season average farm price is projected at a new record.
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TheCropSite News Desk