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CME: Corn Futures Closed Lower Thursday

29 June 2012

US - September Corn finished down 2 1/2 at 625, 17 3/4 off the high and 4 3/4 up from the low. December Corn closed down 3/4 at 632 1/4. This was 6 3/4 up from the low and 16 1/2 off the high.

The corn market was trading higher midday as traders continue to be concerned with the above normal temperatures during corn pollination.

The December contract gained 12 cents my mid-session but gains slowly eroded as traders took profits ahead of tomorrow's Grain Stocks and Seeding Report. The trade expects a slight increase in corn acreage, however traders will key off the stocks estimate.

The trade expects June 1 stocks of near 3.17 billion bushels with range of estimates as wide as 670 million bushels. Afternoon weather maps continue to show rainfall in the 1 to 3 day forecast for Iowa, northern Illinois, northern Indiana, and Ohio.

Changes vs. the morning maps include showers reaching farther south with heavier rainfall to the north. Trader reaction was neutral to the forecast. Outside markets turned negative midday after President Obama's healthcare package was upheld in the Supreme Court.

US stocks and energies are sharply lower while the US Dollar turned higher. The outside market pressure and pre-report jitters likely triggered profit taking after this week's gains. Weekly export sales for the week ending June 21st were considered negative.

Net weekly export sales for corn, came in at just 192,900 metric tonnes for the current marketing year and 99,900 for the next marketing year for a total of 292,800.

Cumulative corn sales stand at 92.9 per cent of the USDA forecast for 2011/2012 (current) marketing year versus a 5 year average of 94.7 per cent.

Old crop sales of 291,000 tonnes are needed each week to reach the USDA forecast. September Rice finished down 0.105 at 14.905, 0.115 off the high and 0.005 up from the low.

Soybean Futures Closed Lower

August Soybeans finished down 8 3/4 at 1447 1/4, 17 3/4 off the high and 8 1/2 up from the low. November Soybeans closed down 9 at 1403.

This was 10 1/4 up from the low and 19 1/2 off the high. August Soymeal closed down 2.4 at 421.3. This was 0.8 up from the low and 8.1 off the high.

August Soybean Oil finished down 0.45 at 51.09, 0.63 off the high and 0.32 up from the low. November soybeans closed lower for the third session in a row. August soybean meal traded moderately higher early and was unchanged coming into the close. August soybean oil was weaker throughout the day to close near it's session lows.

Outside markets turned negative midday after President Obama's healthcare package was upheld in the Supreme Court. Considering the long fund position in the soybean market, outside market pressure likely triggered some profit taking in the soybean market.

Afternoon weather maps continue to show rainfall in the 1 to 3 day forecast for Iowa, northern Illinois, northern Indiana, and Ohio. Changes vs. the morning maps include showers reaching farther south with heavier rainfall to the north.

The USDA reported that private exporters sold 110,000 tonnes of soybeans to an unknown destination for the 2012/13 marketing year. The steady sales pace of new crop soybeans continues to provide a positive market sentiment to the trade going forward.

Weekly exports sales were considered neutral with 403,900 metric tonnes for the current marketing year and 389,200 for the next marketing year for a total of 793,100. Cumulative soybean sales stand at 102.8 per cent of the USDA forecast for 2011/2012 (current) marketing year versus a 5 year average of 99.2 per cent.

Net meal sales came in at 229,600 metric tonnes for the current marketing year and 31,600 for the next marketing year for a total of 261,200. Old crop sales of 61,000 metric tonnes are needed each week to reach the USDA forecast.

Net oil sales came in at 8,300 metric tonnes for the current marketing year and 5,200 for the next marketing year for a total of 13,500. Sales of 4,000 metric tonnes are needed each week to reach the USDA forecast.

The USDA will release its Grain Stocks and Planting Intentions report tomorrow morning. Heading into the report, traders are keying off the soybean planted acreage report.

Many will quickly believe that the USDA will be too high as parts of the Midwest will not be able to double crop soybeans over harvested wheat due to topsoil dryness. Traders are penciling in an increase of 1.6 million acres from the March estimate of 73.9 million acres.

Wheat Futures Closed Lower

September Wheat finished down 5 1/4 at 746, 11 1/2 off the high and 3 3/4 up from the low. December Wheat closed down 5 1/2 at 766 3/4. This was 4 up from the low and 11 1/2 off the high. September wheat closed slightly lower with an inside trading session.

The market bounced off early morning lows due to short covering, caused by a rebound in the corn market. Minneapolis spring wheat was the leader yesterday as traders widened out the premium between Kansas City and Minneapolis, possibly on the potential for much better protein potential in the spring wheat crop.

Outside markets turned negative midday after President Obama's healthcare package was upheld in the Supreme Court.

US stocks and energies are sharply lower while the US Dollar turned higher. Afternoon weather maps continue to show rainfall in the 1 to 3 day forecast for Iowa, northern Illinois, northern Indiana, and Ohio.

Changes vs. the morning maps include showers reaching farther south with heavier rainfall to the north. Trader reaction was neutral to the forecast as the market positions themselves ahead of the Grain Stocks and Seeding report tomorrow morning. Heading into the report, traders are expecting all wheat planted acreage near 56.6 million acres.

This would be slightly higher vs. the March forecast of 55.90 million acres. Wheat markets saw underlying support as traders continue to believe further revisions will need to be made to the Black Sea wheat production numbers on the next USDA report in July.

The weekly export sales report was viewed as neutral to negative with 324,500 metric tonnes for the current marketing year.

As of June 21st, cumulative wheat sales stand at 21.5 per cent of the USDA forecast for 2012/2013 (current) marketing year versus a 5 year average of 21.8 per cent.

Sales of 499,000 metric tonnes are needed each week to reach the USDA forecast. September Oats closed down 1 1/2 at 336. This was 6 1/2 up from the low and 8 3/4 off the high.


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