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CME: Corn Futures Closed Lower Thursday

18 January 2013

US - March Corn finished down 6 3/4 at 724 1/2, 9 1/2 off the high and 2 up from the low. May Corn closed down 6 at 725 1/4. This was 2 1/4 up from the low and 8 1/2 off the high.

March corn traded slightly lower on the day due to light profit taking following surprisingly positive export data this morning. Traders noted that the 9 day rally may have gotten a bit over extended and some were taking money off the table.

Net weekly export sales came in at 393,300 tonnes for the current marketing and as of January 10th, cumulative sales stand at 54.5 per cent of the USDA forecast vs. a 5 year average of 60 per cent. Sales of 328,000 tonnes are needed each week to reach the USDA forecast, down from 330,000 last week.

The market continues to keep a watchful eye on weather in South America as warmer and drier conditions settle into Argentina and South Brazil over the next 10-14 days.

A private consultant in Brazil raised their corn production estimate to 74.7 million tonnes for 2012/13 from last year's 72.7 million tonnes.

The analyst cited beneficial rainfall in key growing regions that should help boost the yield outlook. The USDA is estimating production at 71 million tonnes.

Soy Futures Closed Lower

January Soybeans finished down 5 1/2 at 1431, 17 off the high and 8 3/4 up from the low. November Soybeans closed down 11 3/4 at 1285 1/4. This was 2 1/2 up from the low and 15 3/4 off the high.

January Soymeal closed up 2.1 at 414.0. This was 3.3 up from the low and -2.1 off the high.

January Soybean Oil finished up 0.18 at 51.49, 0.17 off the high and 0.57 up from the low.

March soybeans traded lower on the day despite explosive export sales data this morning. Net weekly export sales for soybeans came in at 1,608,800 tonnes for the current marketing year and 180,000 for the next marketing year for a total of 1,788,800.

The USDA also reported that US exporters sold 240,000 tonnes of soybeans to an unknown destination for the 2013/14 crop year. Sales of only 117,000 tonnes are needed each week to reach the USDA forecast.

Net meal sales came in at 236,100 tonnes for the current marketing year and 9,000 for the next marketing year for a total of 245,100 tonnes. Sales of 45,000 tonnes are needed each week to reach the USDA forecast.

Net oil sales came in at 12,900 tonnes for the current marketing year and sales of 8,000 tonnes are needed each week to reach the USDA forecast. Strong demand from international buyers continues to add support to the market but an expected record crop in Brazil could limit gains long term.

A private analyst in Brazil raised their production forecast for Brazil to 84 million tonnes, up 900,000 tonnes from their prior estimate and vs. the USDA forecast of 82.5 million tonnes.

Wheat Futures Closed Lower

March Wheat finished down 3 3/4 at 781 1/4, 8 1/4 off the high and 5 1/4 up from the low. May Wheat closed down 4 at 789 3/4. This was 4 3/4 up from the low and 8 off the high.

KC and Chicago wheat traded lower on the day despite positive export demand data this morning. Chicago wheat export sales were impressive while Kansas City continues to struggle with new sales given its premium price in the world market.

Wires reported this morning that Iraq bought 300,000 tonnes of milling wheat from Australia and Canada while Algeria bought close to 400,000 tonnes of soft wheat from France yesterday.

Export sales this morning were positive towards price direction but the US remains well behind the pace needed to reach this crop year's USDA export estimate.

Net weekly export sales came in at 536,200 tonnes for the current marketing year and 38,500 for the next marketing year for a total of 574,700.

As of January 10th, cumulative wheat sales stand at 69 per cent of the USDA forecast vs. a 5 year average of 76 per cent. Sales of 431,000 tonnes are needed each week to reach the USDA forecast.

The EU reported that they granted export licenses for 340,000 tonnes of soft wheat taking the total since the beginning of the crop year to 10.4 million tonnes vs. 7.7 for the same period in 2011/12.

March Oats closed down 2 1/4 at 355. This was 3 up from the low and 5 off the high.


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