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Jim Wyckoff's Wednesday Closing Grain Comments

Jim Wyckoff's Wednesday Closing Grain Comments

17 April 2013
Jim Wyckoff Commentary -  TheCropSite

US - July corn futures closed up 1/2 cent at $6.41 1/4 Wednesday. Prices closed near mid-range in quieter trading.

The key “outside markets” were fully bearish for corn today, as the U.S. dollar index was sharply higher and crude oil prices were sharply lower. Selling pressure in corn was limited by the specter of planting delays for the U.S. corn crop. Wet weather in the Corn Belt recently has recharged soil moisture profiles and that is a bearish factor. The corn market bears still have the near-term technical advantage.

Corn bulls' next upside price objective is to push and close prices above solid technical resistance at last week’s high of $6.47 1/4. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at the April low of $6.15. First resistance for July corn is seen at last week’s high of $6.47 1/4 and then at $6.50. First support is seen at Wednesday’s low of $6.35 1/2 and then at $6.30. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.5

July soybeans closed up 4 3/4 cents at $13.80 a bushel Wednesday. Prices closed near mid-range and did hit a fresh two-week high Wednesday. The fact that soybean futures posted gains Wednesday, while at the same time the key “outside markets” were in a fully bearish posture for beans—sharply higher U.S. dollar index and sharply lower crude oil prices—does hint that soybean futures have put in a market low.

Beneficial moisture that has fallen in the U.S. Corn Belt did limit the upside in soybeans. The soybean market bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are still in a seven-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. The next near-term upside technical breakout objective for the soybean bulls is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at $14.00 a bushel.

The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at the April low of $13.36 1/2. First resistance is seen at Wednesday’s high of $13.89 1/4 and then at $14.00. First support is seen at Wednesday’s low of $13.68 and then at $13.60. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.5.

July soybean meal closed up $3.30 at $399.30 Wednesday. Prices closed nearer the session high on short covering and did hit a fresh two-week high. The meal bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is to produce a close above solid technical resistance at the April high of $402.00. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at the April low of $388.00. First resistance comes in at the April high of $402.00 and then at $405.00. First support is seen at $397.50 and then at Wednesday’s low of $394.80. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.0

July bean oil closed up 37 points at 49.44 cents Wednesday. Prices closed nearer the session high on more short covering in a bear market. Prices Monday hit a contract low. The fact that bean oil futures posted gains Wednesday, while at the same time the key “outside markets” were in a fully bearish posture for bean oil—sharply higher U.S. dollar index and sharply lower crude oil prices—does hint that bean oil futures have put in a market low. The bean oil bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage.

The next upside price breakout objective for the bean oil bulls is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at 50.00 cents. Bean oil bears' next downside technical price breakout objective is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at this week’s low of 48.35 cents. First resistance is seen at Wednesday’s high of 49.66 cents and then at 49.84 cents. First support is seen at 49.00 cents and then at Wednesday’s low of 48.71 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.5

July Chicago SRW wheat closed down 1/2 cent at $7.07 1/4 Wednesday. Prices closed near mid-range. The key “outside markets” were in a bearish posture for wheat Wednesday as the U.S. dollar index was sharply higher and crude oil prices were sharply lower. The wheat bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage. Wheat bulls’ next upside breakout objective is to push and close Chicago SRW prices above solid technical resistance at last week’s high of $7.20 1/2 a bushel.

The next downside price breakout objective for the wheat futures bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at the March low of $6.86. First resistance is seen at $7.10 and then at $7.20 1/2. First support lies at $7.00 and then at this week’s low of $6.94 1/2. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.5.

July HRW wheat closed down 1/4 cent at $7.47 1/2 Wednesday. Prices closed nearer the session low. HRW bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Bulls’ next upside price breakout objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at the March high of $7.83 1/2.

The bears' next downside breakout objective is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at the April low of $7.11 1/2. First resistance is seen at $7.50 and then at Wednesday’s high of $7.59 3/4. First support is seen at Wednesday’s low of $7.42 1/2 and then at this week’s low of $7.35 1/4. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.5

July oats closed up 11 3/4 cents at $3.78 Wednesday. Prices closed nearer the session high on more short covering. Oats bulls now have the slight overall near-term technical advantage. Bears' next downside price breakout objective is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at this week’s low of $3.58.

Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at $3.85. First support lies at $3.75 and then at $3.72 3/4. First resistance is seen at Wednesday’s high of $3.78 3/4 and then at $3.80. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5

To read more of of my daily commentary, click here.

Click here for "Today’s Hot Market" item on my website.

Questions? Just email me at jim@jimwyckoff.com. I enjoy hearing from my readers worldwide.

~ Jim

TheCropSite News Desk

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%): 1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.



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