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Jim Wyckoff's Thursday Closing Grain Comments

18 April 2013
Jim Wyckoff Commentary -  TheCropSite

US - July corn futures closed down 11 cents at $6.30 1/4 Thursday.

Prices closed near the session low as trading has been choppy and sideways the past two weeks. Wet weather in the U.S. Corn Belt recently has recharged soil moisture profiles and that is a bearish factor. On this day that trumped the bullish prospects of planting delays for corn due to the wet and cold conditions. The corn market bears have the overall near-term technical advantage.

Corn bulls' next upside price objective is to push and close prices above solid technical resistance at last week’s high of $6.47 1/4. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at the April low of $6.15. First resistance for July corn is seen at $6.35 and then at $6.40. First support is seen at this week’s low of $6.21 3/4 and then at $6.15. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0

July soybeans closed up 7 1/2 cents at $13.87 1/2 a bushel Thursday. Prices closed near mid-range and hit a fresh three-week high. The key “outside markets” were bullish for soybeans Thursday, as the U.S. dollar index was weaker and crude oil prices were higher. Beneficial moisture that has fallen in the U.S. Corn Belt has limited the upside in soybeans recently. The soybean market bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage.

A bullish weekly high close in beans on Friday would provide the bulls with fresh upside technical momentum to suggest that a market low is in place. The next near-term upside technical breakout objective for the soybean bulls is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at $14.00 a bushel. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at this week’s low of $13.50 1/2. First resistance is seen at $14.00 and then at $14.10. First support is seen at Thursday’s low of $13.75 1/4 and then at $13.68. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.0.

July soybean meal closed up $4.00 at $403.30 Thursday. Prices closed near mid-range on more short covering and hit a fresh three-week high. The meal bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage. However, the bulls have gained upside near-term momentum this week. The next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is to produce a close above solid technical resistance at $415.00. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at the April low of $388.00. First resistance comes in at $405.00 and then at Thursday’s high of $408.90. First support is seen at $400.00 and then at Thursday’s low of $398.50. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.5

July bean oil closed up 21 points at 49.65 cents Thursday. Prices closed nearer the session low and saw more short covering in a bear market. The key “outside markets” were bullish for soybean oil Thursday, as the U.S. dollar index was weaker and crude oil prices were higher. The bean oil bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage.

The next upside price breakout objective for the bean oil bulls is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at 50.00 cents. Bean oil bears' next downside technical price breakout objective is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at this week’s low of 48.35 cents. First resistance is seen at 50.00 cents and then at last week’s high of 50.24 cents. First support is seen at Thursday’s low of 49.51 cents and then at 49.25 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0

July Chicago SRW wheat closed up 1 cent at $7.08 1/4 Wednesday. Prices closed near mid-range. The key “outside markets” were bullish for wheat Thursday, as the U.S. dollar index was weaker and crude oil prices were higher. The wheat bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage.

Wheat bulls’ next upside breakout objective is to push and close Chicago SRW prices above solid technical resistance at last week’s high of $7.20 1/2 a bushel. The next downside price breakout objective for the wheat futures bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at the March low of $6.86. First resistance is seen at Thursday’s high of $7.15 1/2 and then at $7.20 1/2. First support lies at $7.00 and then at this week’s low of $6.94 1/2. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.5.

July HRW wheat closed up 3/4 cent at $7.48 1/4 Thursday. Prices closed near mid-range. HRW bears still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Bulls’ next upside price breakout objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at the March high of $7.83 1/2. The bears' next downside breakout objective is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at the April low of $7.11 1/2. First resistance is seen at Thusday’s high of $7.54 1/2 and then at last week’s high of $7.63. First support is seen at Wednesday’s low of $7.42 1/2 and then at this week’s low of $7.35 1/4. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.5

July oats closed up 2 cents at $3.80 Thursday. Prices closed near mid-range. Oats bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Bears' next downside price breakout objective is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at this week’s low of $3.58. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at $3.90. First support lies at Thursday’s low of $3.76 and then at $3.75. First resistance is seen at $3.83 and then at $3.85. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0

To read more of of my daily commentary, click here.

Click here for "Today’s Hot Market" item on my website.

Questions? Just email me at jim@jimwyckoff.com. I enjoy hearing from my readers worldwide.

 

TheCropSite News Desk

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%): 1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.



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