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Jim Wyckoff's Morning Report: Gold Prices Begin to Lift

22 April 2013
Jim Wyckoff Commentary -  TheCropSite

GLOBAL - Strong demand has surfaced for physical gold (bars, coins, jewelry) in the wake of this month’s collapse in prices.

This is a major factor working to lift gold prices up from last week’s lows and beginning to suggest a market bottom is in place.

In overnight news, the Japanese stock market rallied and the yen dropped against the U.S. dollar as the Group of 20 nations at its weekend meeting in Washington, D.C., gave tacit approval of the Bank of Japan’s aggressive monetary policy action recently.

Such also hints the major central banks of the world may want to continue their own aggressive monetary policy easing measures for at least the next several months.

European stocks were also firmer Monday as Italian bond yields declined amid ideas of better political stability in Italy.

U.S. economic data due for release Monday includes the Chicago Fed national activity index and existing home sales. -Jim

U.S. Dollar Index

The U.S. dollar index is firmer in early U.S. trading and hit a two-week high overnight. The bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are bullish early today.

The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 82.815 and then at 83.000. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 82.750 and then at 82.500. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX Crude Oil

Crude oil prices are firmer early today on short covering after hitting a 9.5-month low of $85.90 last week.

Bears still have the near-term technical advantage. In June Nymex crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at $89.40 and then at $90.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $88.00 and then at $87.50. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5


Markets were lower overnight. Recent moisture in the U.S. Corn Belt and Plains states is a bearish factor for grains, even though it could turn to a bullish factor for corn soon, due to the specter of corn-planting delays in the U.S.

However, there is drier weather forecast for the U.S.

Corn Belt in the extended forecast. Traders will closely scrutinize Monday morning’s weekly USDA export inspections reports.

Grain traders will also continue to look to the outside markets for direction.

TheCropSite News Desk

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%): 1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

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