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CME: Corn Futures Closed Lower Monday

23 April 2013

US - May Corn finished down 6 1/4 at 645 3/4, 3 3/4 off the high and 5 1/4 up from the low. July Corn closed down 9 1/2 at 623 1/2. This was 5 1/4 up from the low and 6 1/2 off the high.

May corn traded lower into the closing bell with the September contract leading the complex to the downside.

Weather forecasts suggest improving conditions for field work into next week which helped to pressure the market throughout the day.

Showers and snow will remain in the northwestern Midwest today and move into the Ohio River Valley by this weekend bringing 0.25-1.25 inches of precipitation. The best planting progress in the next two weeks will be for Nebraska, western Iowa, Missouri, and Kansas.

The forecasts for Decatur, IL calls for tapering rainfall by the middle of this week and highs in the 70's next week. Brazil weather forecasts look ideal for second corn crop development with mild temperatures and southern Brazil will see rainfall next week. Soil moisture levels remain adequate for growth until a new wave of showers arrive.

Export inspections were reported at 12.4 million bushels, as compared with trade estimates of 12.5 million and down from 14.7 million the week prior. Shipments needed each week to reach the current USDA export estimate are at 18.3 million, up from 18 the week prior. The cumulative shipment pace is 57% of the USDA export estimate vs. the 5 year average of 61%.

May Rice finished down 0.125 at 15.105, 0.145 off the high and equal to the low.

Soy Futures Closed Lower

May Soybeans finished down 11 at 1417 1/4, 9 1/2 off the high and 9 1/4 up from the low. July Soybeans closed down 17 1/2 at 1365. This was 6 1/2 up from the low and 15 1/2 off the high.

May Soymeal closed down 2.4 at 410.0. This was 2.3 up from the low and 2.5 off the high.

May Soybean Oil finished down 0.54 at 48.62, 0.46 off the high and 0.25 up from the low.

May soybeans traded sharply lower on the day with the July contract leading the downside advance. Technical profit taking in futures and the July/November calendar spread helped to push the market lower. November soybeans finally broke $12.00 this morning, triggering sell stops along the way.

Firm interior basis bids continue to keep the market supported on setbacks but expectations for a huge rebound in global supply by late this summer to October is adding pressure long term. Export inspections were reported at 4.97 million bushels as compared with trader estimates of 7 million bushels, and just above week ago levels of 4.81 million.

The data fell below the 5.6 million bushels needed each week to hit the USDA export estimate and cumulative shipments are running at 92% of the estimate vs. the 5 year average of 83%. The pace of shipments continues to run well behind the current sales pace which suggests sales cancellations could be on the way or sales may roll into the 2013/14 marketing year.

Vessel lineups in Brazil continue to be huge but shipments are being made which is slowing the pace out of the US. The USDA announced this morning that US private exporters sold 174,000 tonnes of soybeans to China for the 2013/14 marketing year.

Wheat Futures Closed Lower

May Wheat finished down 6 3/4 at 702 1/4, 5 1/4 off the high and 11 up from the low. July Wheat closed down 9 at 702 1/2. This was 11 1/4 up from the low and 8 1/2 off the high.

Chicago and Kansas City wheat traded lower on the day mostly due to the weaker trade in the corn market and technical selling. Another freeze threat is in the forecast for areas of western and central KS, northern TX, and parts of OK tomorrow and Wednesday.

Lows are expected to be in the low to mid 20's which may result in cosmetic damage to wheat and possibly winterkill. Some light moisture in the region will help protect the crops. Wheat maturity is well behind the normal pace from central KS and to the north due to the wet and cool conditions this year which may help limit the potential damage on the crop as well.

The export lineup is quiet to start the week which is offering very little direction to the market and inspections came in at 24.85 million bushels, as compared with trader estimates of 22 million bushels and just above last week's 23.5 million. Shipments needed each week to reach the USDA export estimate are at 24.67 million bushels.

The cumulative shipment pace is 85% of the USDA forecast vs. the 5 year average of 85%. The data suggests the USDA export estimates is right in line with current demand levels with only 6 weeks left in the marketing year.

May Oats closed up 8 1/2 at 400 1/2. This was 13 3/4 up from the low and 1/2 off the high.

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