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Jim Wyckoff's Tuesday Market Update: Grains Close Lower

Jim Wyckoff's Tuesday Market Update: Grains Close Lower

23 April 2013
Jim Wyckoff Commentary -  TheCropSite

US - July corn futures closed down 8 1/4 cents at $6.15 3/4 Tuesday, writes Jim Wyckoff for TheCropSite.

Prices closed nearer the session low and hit a fresh 10-month low. Fresh near-term technical damage was inflicted Tuesday to suggest more downside price pressure in the near term. The key outside markets were bearish for the corn market Tuesday as the U.S. dollar index was higher and crude oil prices were weaker.

Wet weather in the U.S. Corn Belt recently has recharged soil moisture profiles and that is a bearish factor. Also, some drier weather forecast for the region later this week is deemed bearish. Corn planters in the Corn Belt will likely start rolling more heavily later this week if that’s the case.

The corn market bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Corn bulls' next upside price objective is to push and close prices above solid technical resistance at $6.36. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at $6.00. First resistance for July corn is seen at $6.20 and then at Tuesday’s high of $6.25 1/4. First support is seen at $6.10 and then at $6.05. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.5

July soybeans closed down 6 3/4 cents at $13.57 1/2 a bushel Tuesday. Prices closed nearer the session low. The key outside markets were bearish for the soybean market Tuesday as the U.S. dollar index was higher and crude oil prices were weaker.

Beneficial moisture that has fallen in the U.S. Corn Belt recently has been bearish for beans. The soybean market bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a choppy, two-month-old downtrend on the daily bar chart.

The next near-term upside technical breakout objective for the soybean bulls is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at last week’s high of $14.00 1/2 a bushel. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at the April low of $13.36 1/2. First resistance is seen at Tuesday’s high of $13.71 1/2 and then at Monday’s high of $13.80 1/2. First support is seen at Tuesday’s low of $13.53 and then at $13.50. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0.

July soybean meal closed down $1.10 at $397.00 Tuesday. Prices closed nearer the session low. The meal bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a choppy, two-month-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is to produce a close above solid technical resistance at last week’s high of $408.90. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at the April low of $388.00. First resistance comes in at $400.00 and then at Monday’s high of $402.10. First support is seen at Monday’s low of $396.00 and then at $395.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.0

July bean oil closed down 18 points at 48.41 cents Tuesday. Prices closed near mid-range and hit a fresh contract low.
The bean oil bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a four-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside price breakout objective for the bean oil bulls is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at 50.00 cents. Bean oil bears' next downside technical price breakout objective is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at 47.50 cents. First resistance is seen at Tuesday’s high of 48.75 cents and then at 49.00 cents. First support is seen at Tuesday’s contract low of 48.08 cents and then at 47.75 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.0

July Chicago SRW wheat closed down 6 1/2 cents at $6.96 Tuesday. Prices closed near mid-range and hit a fresh three-week low. The key outside markets were bearish for the wheat market Tuesday as the U.S. dollar index was higher and crude oil prices were weaker. The wheat bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Wheat bulls’ next upside breakout objective is to push and close Chicago SRW prices above solid technical resistance at the April high of $7.20 1/2 a bushel. The next downside price breakout objective for the wheat futures bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at the March low of $6.86. First resistance is seen at Tuesday’s high of $7.04 1/4 and then at this week’s high of $7.11. First support lies at Tuesday’s low of $6.88 1/4 and then at $6.75. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.0.

July HRW wheat closed down 3 1/2 cents at $7.39 Tuesday. Prices closed near mid-range. HRW bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Bulls’ next upside price breakout objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at the March high of $7.83 1/2. The bears' next downside breakout objective is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at the April low of $7.11 1/2. First resistance is seen at Monday’s high of $7.49 1/2 and then at $7.55. First support is seen at Monday’s low of $7.31 1/4 and then at $7.25. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.0

July oats closed down 3 1/4 cents at $3.89 Tuesday. Prices closed near the session low and did hit a fresh three-week high early on. Profit taking from recent gains was seen Tuesday. Oats bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Bears' next downside price breakout objective is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at $3.75. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at $4.00. First support lies at $3.86 3/4 and then at $3.85. First resistance is seen at Monday’s high of $3.93 and then at Tuesday’s high of $3.96 1/4. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.0

Click here for "Today’s Hot Market" item on my website.

Questions? Just email me at jim@jimwyckoff.com. I enjoy hearing from my readers worldwide.

~Jim

TheCropSite News Desk

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%): 1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.



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