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Jim Wyckoff's Morning Report: Markets Mostly Firmer in Overnight Trading

28 May 2013
Jim Wyckoff Commentary -  TheCropSite

GLOBAL - After a long U.S. holiday weekend, traders will get a full dose of fresh U.S. economic data Tuesday.

Due for release Tuesday includes the Chicago Fed midwest manufacturing index, the S&P/Case-Shiller home price index, the consumer confidence index, the Richmond Fed business activity survey, and the Texas manufacturing outlook survey.

Following last week’s news events from the U.S. Federal Reserve—Chairman Bernanke’s speech to Congress and the latest FOMC minutes’ release—traders and investors will examine the latest U.S. economic data with a keener sense of whether the economy continues to grow slowly, or is beginning to fade.

U.S. stock indexes are set for a higher start to the shortened trading week Tuesday. European stocks were firmer Tuesday, and on Monday. European Central Bank board member Joerg Asmussen on Monday said the ECB will keep its easy monetary policy for as long as necessary. Asian stock markets were also mostly higher Tuesday. - Jim

U.S. Dollar Index

The U.S. dollar index is near steady in early U.S. trading. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage.

Slow stochastics for the dollar index are bearish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at 84.000 and then at the overnight high of 84.070.

Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 83.705 and then at last week’s low of 83.500. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0

NYMEX Crude Oil

Crude oil prices are firmer early today, on short covering. Bulls and bears are on an overall level near-term technical playing field. In July Nymex crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at $95.00 and then at $96.00. 

Look for sell stops just below technical support at $94.00 and then at the overnight low of $93.23. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0


Markets were mostly firmer in overnight trading. The feature in the grain markets this week will be U.S. Corn Belt weather.

It was a very soggy holiday weekend in the central U.S., with heavy rains and flooding. Corn planting is still behind normal in the Corn Belt. The flooding will force some re-planting of corn that was already in the ground, although not likely a significant amount.

Corn bulls have gained upside technical momentum recently. Soybean bulls still have the near-term technical advantage, but last week’s price action produced a technically bearish buying exhaustion tail on the daily chart.

Wheat remains the weak sister of the grains complex, but will follow corn if that market continues to rally.

TheCropSite News Desk

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%): 1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

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