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CEREALS: Uncertainty Surrounds UK 2013 Rapeseed Crop

CEREALS: Uncertainty Surrounds UK 2013 Rapeseed Crop

14 June 2013

ANALYSIS - Current forecasts suggest record grain crops in 2013, but as always at this point, the market is waiting for the clarity of harvest, says Jack Watts, AHDB/HGCA Senior Analyst.

Speaking at Cereals 2013, Mr Watts said planting disruption has been one of the major problems faced by farmers this year.

"The world is forecast to see some record wheat and maize crops in 2013. Those forecasts have come forward from the USDA, International Grains Council and FAO.

"Those crops aren't guaranteed yet, so the market at the minute is a little reticent to fully respond to any downward trends."

Grain: the key factors

  • UK wheat is relatively expensive against world/EU levels, which is supportive of imports.
  • The greatest risk to price is more 'normal' weather, which could see record global wheat and maize crops, increasing stock levels and pushing down prices.
  • Maize stocks are forecast to increase but not expected to see full recovery, so global feed grain markets are likely to remain a source of volatility.

Oilseeds: the key factors

  • The arrival of the US Soybean crop to the market this coming autumn is likely to be met by remaining supplies of the Brazilian crop. However, greater availability is likely to stimulate more demand, particularly from China.
  • EU rapeseed production is expected to recover in 2013/14 but a defecit supply and demand balance is still expected.
  • With uncertainty and concern surrounding the size of the rapeseed crop, the UK could become a net importer in 2013/14.

To read more from the HGCA, click here.

 

Gemma Hyland, Editor

Gemma Hyland, Editor



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