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Indonesia Experiencing Another Wet Dry Season

08 August 2013
USDA Foreign Agricultural Service

INDONESIA - After CY2010 and CY2011, Indonesia is again experiencing another wet dry season in CY2013.

The Indonesian Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysics Agency reported that the sea dynamic climatology analysis showed that the increase of precipitation and above normal rainfall currently ongoing in Indonesia is the result of warming temperature on Indonesian sea surface.

As of the beginning of June, Indonesian sea temperature was recorded at 29 – 31 centigrade with 1 to 2 centigrade anomaly. The wet dry season in CY2013 may be similar to that in CY2010. However, this year’s wet dry season will not be affected by a strong La Nina as in CY2010 based on major international weather and climatology institutions prediction that until October 2013 the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) would still be normal.


Due to stronger demand from the domestic market, MY 2012/13 Indonesian wheat exports will decline to 223,000 MT from the previous estimate of 260,000 MT. The recent incident of Genetically Modified Organism (GMO) wheat finding in an Oregon fortunately has had no impact in Indonesia. Both Indonesian government and the industry understand that the isolated incident poses no food safety concerns.


The wet dry season in MY 2012/13 provides an opportunity for farmers on rain fed areas to grow paddy during the second crop season when they normally grow secondary crop such as corn, soybean, mung bean, or peanut. Farmers’ preference to grow paddy due to water availability contributed to a slight decrease in corn harvested area to 3.05 million hectares from the previous MY 2011/12 of 3.12 million hectares.

In line with the decline in acreage, Indonesia’s corn production in MY 2012/13 is also estimated to slightly decline to 8.5 MMT. New feed mills, which are expected to start operational this year, will likely maintain the high level of corn imports. Therefore, Post estimates that MY 2012/13 Indonesian corn imports will reach 2.7 MMT compared to the previous estimate of 1.9 MMT.


Although the wet dry season increased Indonesian MY 2012/13 paddy harvested areas to an estimated of 1.19 million hectares, rainfall during the day slightly lowered yield to 4.721 tons per hectare compared to 4.727 tons per hectare in previous MY 2011/12.

Further Reading

You can view the USDA GAIN: Indonesia Grain and Feed Update July 2013 by clicking here.

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