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Jim Wyckoff's Morning Report: German Industrial Production Growing

07 August 2013
Jim Wyckoff Commentary -  TheCropSite

GLOBAL - In overnight news, German industrial production rose by 2.4% in June from May, following a 0.8% decline in May. The growth rate was forecast at up 0.3% on the month. This latest report continues a recent string of upbeat German economic data that suggests the European Union’s largest economy is well on its way to recovery.

The Bank of England said Wednesday in its quarterly inflation report that it will keep its interest rates ultra-low and keep purchasing gilts until the U.K’s unemployment rate drops to 7%.

However, BOE governor Mark Carney would not promise rates would not rise in the coming few years. The British stock market dropped on Carney’s remarks. U.S. economic data due for release Wednesday includes the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey, the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report, and consumer installment credit.

US Dollar Index

The September U.S. dollar index is slightly lower in early U.S. trading. Bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are bearish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 81.880 and then at this
week’s high of 82.160. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 81.530 and then at last week’s low of 81.480. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5

NYMEX Crude Oil

Crude oil prices are near steady early today. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. However, if prices back off this week a bearish double-top reversal pattern would form on the daily bar chart. In September Nymex crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at
$106.00 and then at $106.50. Look for sell stops just below technical support at this week’s low of $104.86 and then at $104.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

Grains

Markets were narrowly mixed in overnight trading. Not much new. The grain market bears remain in solid technical command. The U.S. Corn Belt weather remains non-threatening for the corn and soybean crops, which is bearish. The next major data points for the grain markets are likely to be
the monthly USDA supply and demand report, out next week, and the Pro Farmer Midwest crop tour in late-August. My bias is that the downside is somewhat limited in the grain markets, what with prices beaten down hard recently.

TheCropSite News Desk

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%): 1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.



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