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Jim Wyckoff's Morning Report: Markets Firmer Overnight

08 August 2013
Jim Wyckoff Commentary -  TheCropSite

GLOBAL - Chinese economic data released overnight was bullish for most of the market place and especially for the raw commodity sector.

China exports were up a much higher than expected 5.1% year-on-year in July, compared to a 3.1% drop in June.

Chinese imports rose by a much higher than expected 11%, year-on-year. The European Central Bank released a forecast Thursday that shows it expects Euro zone economic
growth to contract by 0.6% in 2013, citing weak consumer demand worldwide.

The ECB forecast Euro zone growth in 2014 at up 0.9%. The ECB report comes out at a time when recent Euro zone economic data has shown generally slight improvement. U.S. economic data due for release Thursday includes the weekly jobless claims report and the ICSC chain store trends report. - Jim

U.S. Dollar Index

The September U.S. dollar index is lower in early U.S. trading and hit another fresh six-week low overnight. Bears have the overall near-term technical advantage.

Slow stochastics for the dollar index are bearish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 81.395 and then at 81.500. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 81.115 and then at 81.000. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

NYMEX Crude Oil

Crude oil prices are near steady early today. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage, but have faded this week.

If prices back off the rest of this week then a bearish double-top reversal pattern would form on the daily bar chart.

In September Nymex crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at $105.00 and then at $105.50.

Look for sell stops just below technical support at $104.00 and then at $103.50. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

Grains

Markets were firmer in overnight trading, on short covering in bear markets. The grain market bears remain in solid technical command.

However, it’s now my bias that there is not strong downside price pressure left in the grain markets, after their recent beating.

The next major data points for the grain markets are likely to be the monthly USDA supply and demand report, out next Monday, and the Pro Farmer Midwest crop tour in late-August.

TheCropSite News Desk

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%): 1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.



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