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Jim Wyckoff's Morning Report: Markets Mixed Overnight

12 August 2013
Jim Wyckoff Commentary -  TheCropSite

US - China’s stock market rallied Monday and hit a two-month high after some recent upbeat economic news and notions the Chinese government wants to inject fresh stimulus measures into its economy.

Meantime, Japan’s stock market dropped to a seven-week low on some weak Japanese economic data released Monday. In other overnight news, it was reported that Greece’s economy contracted by 4.6%, year-on-year, in the second quarter.

Greece is in its sixth year of economic recession. German officials said Monday they would not back
another European Union bailout package for Greece. Reports overnight said gold-backed exchange traded funds saw decent inflows last Friday.

The latest Commitments of Traders report from the CFTC shows the funds are starting to get long gold futures again. U.S. economic data due for release Monday is light and includes the monthly Treasury budget statement.

A couple of U.S. Federal Reserve officials give speeches this week, which will be closely scrutinized by the market place, for the future direction of Fed monetary policy. - Jim

U.S. Dollar Index

The September U.S. dollar index is higher in early U.S. trading, on short covering. Bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are bullish early today.

The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at 81.500 and then at 81.750. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 81.110 and then at last week’s low of 80.895. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0

NYMEX Crude Oil

Crude oil prices are near steady early today, on short covering. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. In September Nymex crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at the overnight high of $106.40 and then at $107.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $105.00 and then at $104.50. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

Grains

Markets were mixed in overnight trading. Grain traders are anxiously awaiting the midday-Monday release of the monthly USDA supply and demand report, at which time the government will update its estimate of the size of the U.S. corn and soybean crops this year.

Most traders reckon the USDA data will favor the bearish camp. However, it’s still my bias that there is not strong downside price pressure left in the grain markets, after their recent slides lower.

TheCropSite News Desk

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%): 1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.



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