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CME: Corn Futures Closed Higher Thursday

16 August 2013

US - December Corn finished up 17 at 472 1/4, 3 1/4 off the high and 18 3/4 up from the low. March Corn closed up 16 1/4 at 484 1/2. This was 17 3/4 up from the low and 3 1/4 off the high.

Corn futures traded sharply higher on the day, led by gains in the December contract. The new crop contract traded up to 475 1/2 in the morning hours, backpedaled midday, and then closed near the highs.

Current valuation has not been seen since August 1st. A warmer 5-7 day forecast for the northern Midwest and lack of rainfall has the trade nervous about how corn conditions and yields unfold to finish out this month.

Additional support was due to the FSA releasing preventative planted acreage data that stated 3.4 million acres went unplanted.

The August 2012 report stated prevent plant was 255,080 acres vs. the final estimate FSA estimate of 257,300.

The FSA will continue updating this data in the months ahead although historically there are no direct correlation between FSA and what NASS publishes for the official planted acreage.

Despite this, the data was supportive when mixed in with questionable weather outlook. Export sales beat market estimates this morning due to another solid round of new crop sales.

Net weekly export sales showed a cancelation of 59,100 tonnes for the current marketing year and 836,100 of new sales for the next marketing year. Included in the new crop sales total was the tonnage sold to Mexico last week.

As of August 8th, cumulative sales stand at 33% of the USDA forecast for 2013/2014 versus a 5 year average of 22%. Sales of 378,000 tonnes are needed each week to reach the USDA forecast.

November Rice finished up 0.145 at 15.545, equal to the high and equal to the low.

Soy Futures Closed Higher

November Soybeans finished up 26 1/2 at 1265 1/2, 3 1/2 off the high and 26 1/4 up from the low. January Soybeans closed up 25 at 1268 1/4. This was 24 1/2 up from the low and 3 1/4 off the high.

December Soymeal closed up 8.5 at 387.6. This was 8.8 up from the low and 1.2 off the high.

December Soybean Oil finished up 0.82 at 43.45, 0.1 off the high and 0.76 up from the low.

Soybean futures traded up double digits on the day and the Sept/Nov spread pushed lower, perhaps on some fresh farmer selling.

Additional support was due to the FSA releasing preventative planted acreage data that stated 1.6 million acres went unplanted this year.

The FSA will continue updating this data in the months ahead although historically there are no direct correlation between FSA and what NASS publishes for official planted acreage.

Weather leans positive with a warmer and drier forecast over the next week to two weeks which is adding momentum to the upside. Export sales were extremely support for the new crop year but offered nothing for the old crop bulls.

Net weekly export sales showed a cancelation of 10,500 tonnes for the current marketing year and 1,893,400 tonnes of new sales for the next marketing year.

As of August 8th, cumulative sales stand at 47.5% of the USDA forecast for 2013/2014 versus a 5 year average of 30%. Sales of 356,000 tonnes are needed each week to reach the USDA forecast.

Net meal sales came in at 122,400 tonnes for the current marketing year and 121,100 for the next marketing year. Net oil sales came in at 1,800 tonnes for the current marketing year and 6,000 for the next marketing year.

Cumulative sales stand at 91% of the USDA forecast versus a 5 year average of 90%. Sales of 11,000 tonnes are needed each week to reach the USDA forecast. NOPA crush came in right in line with trader estimates of 116 million bushels, at 116.34 million.

The data still suggests crush needs to slow in the months ahead to hit the USDA forecast which is supportive. Soybean oil stocks for July sank to 2.049 million pounds, down from 2.297 in June and down from 2.345 in July of last year.

Wheat Futures Closed Higher

December Wheat finished up 6 3/4 at 649 1/2, 3 1/2 off the high and 8 3/4 up from the low. March Wheat closed up 6 1/4 at 661 3/4. This was 8 up from the low and 3 3/4 off the high.

Wheat futures traded higher into the closing bell and calendar spreads in KC and Chicago edged higher again. The corn market was up double digits in the wake of a warmer forecast over the next week that doesn't offer much rainfall.

This prompted profit taking in long wheat vs. short corn spreads. While export sales continue to look positive, the trend of explosive sales is beginning to fade as China has shown no interest in the last couple of weeks but Brazil continues to buy.

Net weekly export sales came in at 490,100 tonnes for the current marketing year and 5,500 for the next marketing year for a total of 495,600.

This was below market estimates and well below week ago levels. KC sales were huge again at 195,500 tonnes with a large portion heading to Brazil.

Chicago sales continue to wither away with only 45,500 posted. Keep in mind, China is the largest book for Chicago wheat so without interest, the sales trend will have a difficult time charging higher from here given our premium vs. Ukraine and French offers.

As of August 8th, cumulative sales stand at 47% of the USDA forecast for 2013/2014 versus a 5 year average of 37%. Sales of 373,000 tonnes are needed each week to reach the USDA forecast.

December Oats closed up 2 3/4 at 331 1/4. This was 3 3/4 up from the low and 1 off the high.


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