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CME: Corn Futures Closed Lower Thursday

23 August 2013

US - December Corn finished down 18 3/4 at 464 1/2, 17 3/4 off the high and 1/4 up from the low. March Corn closed down 18 3/4 at 477. This was 1/4 up from the low and 17 off the high.

Corn futures traded sharply lower today and the December contract pushed down to a new low for the week.

The Sept/Dec edged higher with reports of some ethanol plants in the eastern Corn Belt paying $2 over the December contract for cash corn. The slow harvest in the southeast, tight old crop stocks, and strong ethanol margins are supportive.

The new crop market leans bearish short term after storms systems rolled through NE, northern IA, southern MN and WI, and are now stretching to the east into N IL and IN. The moisture is welcome as temperatures will heat back up by the weekend which will increase heat units for crops.

The central Midwest remains dry although OH saw rain last night. The 7 day outlook is warmer and drier which is keeping the downside break limited. Traders suggest the market is likely to remain range bound for now until the production outlook is clear.

Net weekly export sales came in at 58,200 tonnes for the current marketing year and 434,400 for the next marketing year for a total of 492,600.

As of August 15th, cumulative sales stand at 34% of the USDA forecast for 2013/2014 versus a 5 year average of 23.5%. Sales of 377,000 tonnes are needed each week to reach the USDA forecast.

November Rice finished down 0.055 at 15.495, equal to the high and equal to the low.

Soy Futures Closed Lower

November Soybeans finished down 17 1/4 at 1286 3/4, 18 3/4 off the high and 3 3/4 up from the low. January Soybeans closed down 17 at 1288 1/2. This was 3 up from the low and 18 3/4 off the high.

December Soymeal closed down 7.8 at 400.3. This was 3.1 up from the low and 7.0 off the high.

December Soybean Oil finished down 0.41 at 42.76, 0.65 off the high and 0.09 up from the low.

The soybean market traded lower on the day with talk of an overbought condition and after storms systems rolled through the northern tier of the Corn Belt.

The moisture is welcome as temperatures will heat back up by the weekend. The warmest days next week will be Monday and Tuesday. The mix of rainfall and increased temperatures will be favorable for soybean development but the central Midwest remains mostly dry over the next 7 days which is supportive.

The yield and production outlook remain up in the air at the moment and with a decline of 1 bushel per acre from the current USDA forecast of 42.6 bushels per acre will result in an ending stocks estimate of 143 million bushels vs. 220 million currently. The margin for error is small on the supply side while demand remains strong.

Net weekly export sales for soybeans came in at 20,900 tonnes for the current marketing year and 926,000 for the next marketing year for a total of 946,900. As of August 15th, cumulative sales stand at 50% of the USDA forecast for 2013/2014 versus a 5 year average of 31.5%. Sales of 345,000 tonnes are needed each week to reach the USDA forecast.

Net meal sales came in at 75,700 tonnes for the current marketing year and 101,000 for the next marketing year for a total of 176,700. Cumulative sales stand at 105% of the USDA forecast for 2012/2013 versus a 5 year average of 93.5%.

Net oil sales came in at 8,400 tonnes for the current marketing year and 1,300 for the next marketing year for a total of 9,700. Cumulative sales stand at 92% of the USDA forecast for 2012/2013 versus a 5 year average of 90%. Sales of 12,000 tonnes are needed each week to reach the USDA forecast.

Wheat Futures Closed Lower

December Wheat finished down 8 3/4 at 640 1/2, 10 1/2 off the high and 1/2 up from the low. March Wheat closed down 8 1/2 at 652 1/4. This was 1/2 up from the low and 10 off the high.

Wheat futures are traded lower into the closing bell, mostly in line with the weaker action in the corn market. Net weekly export sales came in at 494,000 tonnes for the current marketing year which was slightly below trader estimates.

Sales continue to show a strong trend but have backed off in the last month. KC sales continue to lean bullish with total sales estimated at 280,000 tonnes, most of which went to Brazil. Chicago wheat sales were estimated at only 7,500 tonnes.

China continues to be absent from the market and US wheat doesn't price into the Middle East and North Africa. As of August 15th, cumulative sales stand at 49% of the USDA forecast for 2013/2014 versus a 5 year average of 39%.

Sales of 370,000 tonnes are needed each week to reach the USDA forecast. Minneapolis spring wheat sales were estimated at 124,800 tonnes which was supportive but futures are traded lower today. Reports of lower protein out of the US spring wheat harvest and expectations for the largest Canadian crop in 22 years are negative influences.

Paris wheat futures traded steady overnight but found support from a weaker Euro as the US Dollar surged higher. The EU cleared 579,000 tonnes of wheat for export this week taking the marketing year total for 13/14 to 3.23 million tonnes compared to 1.44 for the same period a year ago.

Winterkill concerns for areas of South America and Australia were supportive factors today and helped edge wheat vs. corn spreads higher.

December Oats closed down 3 1/2 at 332 1/2. This was 1 up from the low and 7 1/4 off the high.

 


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