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Jim Wyckoff's Morning Report: Markets Firmer Overnight Thursday

23 August 2013
Jim Wyckoff Commentary -  TheCropSite

GLOBAL - It’s a quieter, late-summer-on-a-Friday trading affair in the market place early today. There were no major world developments or economic news overnight to significantly move markets.

The Asian currency and financial markets have calmed a bit but remain strained. Other geopolitical affairs are sitting on the back-burner at present.

There is still buzz in the market place about the timing of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s winding down of its quantitative easing of monetary policy.

Many reckon the Fed will start to “taper” early this fall, completely wind down its monthly bond buying sometime in 2014 and then could start to tighten monetary policy in 2015.

The fact the market place is presently so keenly focused on what the Fed may or may not do in the coming months and rehashing recent Fed speak and events has as much to do with late-summer doldrums in the markets with not much else to discuss among traders and investors, as it does with the importance of the U.S. central bank’s actions on world markets.

Look for market place activity to pick up markedly after the U.S. Labor Day holiday in about 10 days. History shows the months of September and October can be turbulent times for the market place. U.S. economic data due for release Friday is light and includes new residential home sales.--Jim

U.S. Dollar Index

The September U.S. dollar index is firmer in early U.S. trading, on more short covering. While the bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage, the bulls have gained some upside momentum this week.

Slow stochastics for the dollar index are bullish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at Thursday’s high of 81.950 and then at 82.160. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 81.490 and then at 81.250. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX Crude Oil

October Nymex crude oil prices are near steady early today. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage.

In October Nymex crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at the overnight high of $104.72 and then at $105.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $104.71 and then at $104.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

Grains

Markets were firmer in overnight trading, on a corrective bounce from selling pressure seen Thursday. The stronger U.S. dollar index this week is a negative for the grain markets.

Beneficial rains fell in parts of the western U.S. Corn Belt Thursday, which is also bearish. The Pro Farmer Midwest Crop Tour winds up with its corn and soybean crop estimates Friday afternoon. Soybean bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage, while corn market bears have the chart edge and wheat bears are in full technical control.

TheCropSite News Desk

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%): 1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.



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