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Jim Wyckoff's Morning Report: Markets Jittery Amid Syria Concerns

03 September 2013
Jim Wyckoff Commentary -  TheCropSite

GLOBAL - The markets are a bit jittery Tuesday amid continued US saber-rattling against Syria. Russian news agencies reported overnight that two missiles were launched in the Mediterranean Sea.

Those reports caused European stock markets to shudder and gold prices to briefly rally. However, it appears the U.S. is still only considering striking Syria with its military power, as President Obama
will go to Congress to get its approval for military action.

The U.S. Labor Day holiday saw U.S. markets closed Monday. Now, as U.S. traders come back to work they have a full plate of events that lie just ahead.

The important U.S. jobs report is out on Friday. The Bank of England and European Central Bank hold their monthly monetary policy meetings on Thursday.

There is a Group of 20 nations meeting this week. The U.S. congress returns from its summer recess in mid-September and will immediately have to deal with pressing budget matters.

There is an FOMC meeting in September, at which time many believe the U.S. Fed will decided to change its monetary policy. And, it’s likely that President Obama early this fall will name a new Federal Reserve chairman.

Raw commodity markets saw some good news Monday when upbeat Chinese manufacturing data was released.

Chinese officials this week said their country’s annual economic growth target of 7.5% will be met. There was also positive manufacturing data coming out of the European Union on Monday. Both
European Union and China economies have seen a string of mostly better-than-expected economic reports recently.

U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday includes the U.S. manufacturing PMI, construction spending, the IDB/TIPP economic optimism index, the ISM manufacturing report on business, and the global manufacturing PMI.--Jim

U.S. Dollar Index

The September U.S. dollar index is higher and hit a fresh four-week high in early U.S. trading. Bulls have near-term technical momentum on their side.

Slow stochastics for the dollar index are bullish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at the August high of 82.610 and then at 82.750. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 82.280 and then at 82.000. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0

NYMEX Crude Oil

October Nymex crude oil prices are weaker early today on more corrective downside pressure after hitting a more than two-year high last week. Crude bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage.

However, the bulls may have become exhausted with last week’s big push higher in prices. In October Nymex crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at $108.00 and then at $109.00.

Look for sell stops just below technical support at $106.00 and then at $105.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

Grains

Markets were higher overnight, with soybeans leading gains at sharply higher values. While there was a weekend respite from the hot and dry weather in the U.S. Corn Belt, with cooler temps and scattered rains, the weather forecasts call for the next week to once again be hot and dry in the
region.

That is fully bullish for soybeans and also bullish corn. The late-summer weather market continues play out in the grain futures markets. Wheat remains overall technically bearish, but is following corn.

TheCropSite News Desk

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%): 1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.



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