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Jim Wyckoff's Morning Report: Global Markets Quiet Overnight

06 September 2013
Jim Wyckoff Commentary -  TheCropSite

GLOBAL - World markets were quieter overnight, as traders and investors await the big economic news of the week and of the month: Friday morning’s U.S. jobs report.

Many market watchers believe Friday’s jobs data will tip the Federal Reserve’s hand on when the “tapering” of U.S. monetary policy will begin.

Forecasts call for the key U.S. non-farm jobs number to come in at up 175,000 in August. The overall unemployment rate is expected to be unchanged from July, at 7.4%.

However, the whisper in the market place is that the non-farms payroll number could come in above 200,000, given this week’s upbeat U.S. economic data.

And the bigger surprise to the market place would be a significantly weaker than expected non-farm jobs number. Look for volatile price action in many markets in the immediate aftermath of the employment data. An important element in the market place mix is rising world interest rates.

The 10-year U.S. Treasury note is flirting with a 3% yield. If the note yield pushes above 3%, many market watchers believe that will be a game-changer for many big money managers—mostly bearish for the world stock markets.

If that is the case, it could wind up being bullish for the precious metals and raw commodity sector, due to the fact that money flowing out of equities will seek other asset classes. The market place is still concerned regarding the U.S. threat to attack Syria after the Assad regime allegedly used chemical weapons against Syrian citizens.

However, economic data this week has been the keener focus of the market place, for now. The U.S. Congress is mostly backing President Obama on his notion to use U.S. firepower to strike Syria.

However, at the G-20 meeting in St. Petersburg, Russia, it appears Russian President Putin is trying to steal the show by him and his Asian allies squaring off against President Obama on his intention to attack Syria.

Putin, who is striving to be relevant on the world stage, has hinted Russia could come to the aid of Syria if the U.S. military did attack the Bashar Assad regime.

Come Monday morning the Syria tensions could well be right back on the front burner of the market place, including some new twists that come out of the G-20 meeting.--Jim

U.S. Dollar Index

The September U.S. dollar index is slightly lower early today. Bulls still have some near-term technical momentum on their side.

Prices are in a three-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are neutral early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at 83.000 and then at 83.250.

Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 82.765 and then at 82.500. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0

NYMEX Crude Oil

October Nymex crude oil prices are slightly higher early today. Crude bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage, amid recent upbeat economic data coming out of the world’s major countries, and amid the Syria tensions.

In October Nymex crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at the overnight high of $108.92 and then at $110.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $108.12 and then at $107.50. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

Grains

Markets were firmer overnight on mostly short covering ahead of the U.S. jobs report. Soybean bulls are maintaining their technical advantage. Corn and wheat bears remain in firm technical command.

While the extended weather forecasts for the U.S. Corn Belt call for very warm and dry conditions in the region, it appears the late- summer weather market has played out in the grain futures markets.

It appears yield damage to the crops has already been mostly factored into present prices. For grain market prices to gain more upside in the near term, some new fundamental news will have to occur.

Maybe that will come from the demand side, with hints coming in this morning’s USDA weekly export sales report. The grains could also react to key “outside market” forces in the near term.

TheCropSite News Desk

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%): 1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.



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