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Jim Wyckoff's Wednesday Closing Grains: Corn Higher in Pre-report Positioning

11 September 2013
Jim Wyckoff Commentary -  TheCropSite

US - December corn futures closed up 4 cents at $4.73 Wednesday. Prices closed near the session high on more short covering in a bear market and position evening ahead of the key USDA monthly supply and demand report out Thursday morning.

USDA will update its latest U.S. corn and soybean production forecasts. The corn bears remain in firm near-term technical control. Corn bulls' next upside price objective is to push and close prices above solid technical resistance at $4.80. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at the August low of $4.45 3/4. First resistance for December corn is seen at $4.75 and then at $4.80. First support is seen at $4.70 and then at Wednesday’s low of $4.66 1/4. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.5

November soybeans closed up 3 1/4 cents at $13.58 1/4 a bushel Wednesday. Prices closed nearer the session high. Weather in the U.S. Corn Belt has now turned into a non-market factor for soybean and corn. Traders have factored into prices all the damage that has been and will be done to the U.S. crops due to the late-summer heat wave and drought. It will likely take some fresh fundamental news to give the soybean market a significant lift above the recent high.

Traders are awaiting the key USDA monthly supply and demand report, out Thursday morning. USDA will update its latest U.S. corn and soybean production forecasts. Soybean bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage. A bull flag pattern has formed on the daily bar chart.

The next near-term upside technical breakout objective for the soybean bulls is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at the contract high of $14.09 3/4 a bushel, scored in September of last year. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is pushing prices below solid technical support at $13.31 1/2, which is the bottom of an upside price gap on the daily bar chart. First support is seen at Wednesday’s low of $13.48 3/4 and then at last week’s low of $13.35. First resistance is seen at Tuesday’s high of $13.63 1/4 and then at $13.70. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.0.

December soybean meal closed up $3.20 at $428.40 Wednesday. Prices closed near the session high. The meal bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside price objective for the bulls is to produce a close above solid technical resistance at the contract high of $445.80. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at $400.00. First resistance comes in at Tuesday’s high of $430.00 and then at this week’s high of $434.90. First support is seen at Wednesday’s low of $422.70 and then at this week’s low of $420.20. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.0

December bean oil closed down 15 points at 42.92 cents Wednesday. Prices closed near the session low and closed at a fresh two-week low close. The bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside price breakout objective for the bean oil bulls is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at 44.50 cents. Bean oil bears' next downside technical price breakout objective is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at 42.67 cents. First resistance is seen at Tuesday’s high of 43.55 cents and then at 44.00 cents. First support is seen at this week’s low of 42.79 cents and then at 42.67 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.0

December Chicago SRW wheat closed up 1 cent at $6.47 1/2 Wednesday. Prices closed near mid-range on tepid short covering in a bear market. The wheat market bears still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage as prices are not far above the contract low. Traders are awaiting Thursday morning’s monthly USDA supply and demand report. However, wheat will continue to be a follower of corn. Wheat bulls’ next upside breakout objective is to push and close Chicago SRW prices above solid technical resistance at last week’s high of $6.64 a bushel. The next downside price breakout objective for the wheat futures bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at the contract low of $6.35 1/2. First resistance is seen at Wednesday’s high of $6.52 1/2 and then at $6.60. First support lies at Wednesday’s low of $6.42 and then at $6.35 1/2 and then at $6.30. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.5.

December HRW wheat closed up 1/2 cent at $6.95 1/4 Wednesday. Prices closed near mid-range and saw tepid short covering in a bear market. The HRW wheat market bears have the strong overall near-term technical advantage. Bulls’ next upside price breakout objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at last week’s high of $7.11 1/4. The bears' next downside breakout objective is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at $6.75. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of $7.00 and then at $7.11 1/4. First support is seen at the contract low of $6.87 3/4 and then at $6.80. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.5

December oats closed up 2 1/4 cents at $3.21 Wednesday. Prices closed nearer the session high on more short covering after hitting a contract low on Tuesday. Bears still have the solid near-term technical advantage. Bears' next downside price breakout objective is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at $3.00. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at $3.33. First support lies at $3.20 and then at Wednesday’s low of $3.16 3/4. First resistance is seen at $3.25 and then at this week’s high of $3.27. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.0

Click here for my latest "Hot Market" item on my website.

Questions? Just email me at jim@jimwyckoff.com. I enjoy hearing from my readers worldwide.

~Jim

 

TheCropSite News Desk

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%): 1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.



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