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Wyckoff's Morning Report: Consumer Confidence Highest in Two Years

27 September 2013
Jim Wyckoff Commentary -  TheCropSite

GLOBAL - In overnight news, consumer confidence in the European Union rose to its highest level in more than two years during August.

The EU’s economic sentiment indicator rose to 96.9 in September versus 95.3 in August. However, European stock markets were weaker due to concerns about the Italian government’s stability amid a fraud scandal involving former prime minister Berlusconi.

Asian stock markets were firmer in uneventful action Friday, following Wall Street’s advance Thursday.

The main focus of the market place is now on the U.S. budget and debt ceiling impasses that threaten to shut down the U.S. government as soon as next Tuesday.

Congress needs to pass a budget by that time and is working on bills. Presently, it’s highly uncertain if the Congress can come to agreement by October 1.

Also, in mid-October the U.S. will hit its borrowing limit. These matters are presently an underlying bearish factor for most markets and could become a major bearish factor in the next couple weeks.

Some analysts are saying gold is presently seeing selling interest limited due to some safe-haven demand ahead of the U.S. budget and spending deadlines and the uncertainty of the matter.

But other analysts are saying recent selling pressure in gold is because it’s acting like a raw commodity ahead of the budget deadlines. It’s likely one of these scenarios will clearly come to the forefront by early next week.

U.S. economic data due for release Friday includes personal income and outlays, and the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey. A couple more Federal Reserve officials are scheduled to speak Friday, and their comments will be closely watched by the market place.--Jim

U.S. Dollar Index

The December U.S. dollar index is weaker early today. Bears remain in overall near-term technical command.

Slow stochastics for the dollar index are neutral early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 80.760 and then at 80.949.

Shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 80.395 and then at last week’s low of 80.155. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

NYMEX Crude Oil

November Nymex crude oil prices are weaker early today. Bulls are fading. In November Nymex crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at $103.00 and then at $104.00.

Look for sell stops just below technical support at this week’s low of $102.20 and then at $102.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

Grains

Markets were mixed overnight. Soybeans were firmer and corn and wheat were just slightly lower. Wheat bulls are making a good upside move as futures prices Thursday hit multi- week highs.

There are early technical clues the wheat markets have put in major lows. Soybean and some corn harvesting are picking up speed this week. Traders are looking ahead to next Monday’s USDA quarterly grain stocks report.

That report is expected to be bearish for corn and soybeans. Technically, the soybean bulls still have the overall advantage, but have faded, to begin to suggest a market top is in place. Corn market bears remain in firm technical command.

TheCropSite News Desk

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%): 1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.



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