TheCropSite.com- news, features, articles and disease information for the crop industry

News

CME: Corn Futures Closed Lower Monday

01 October 2013

US - December Corn finished down 12 1/2 at 441 1/2, 20 1/2 off the high and 3/4 up from the low. March Corn closed down 12 at 454 1/2. This was 1 up from the low and 19 3/4 off the high.

December corn closed 12 1/2 cents lower on the session and down to the lowest level since September of 2010.

The market traded higher early in the session ahead of the USDA stocks report as short-covering was noted.

The USDA report was considered bearish against trader estimates. September 1st stocks came in at 824 million bushels as compared with trade expectations near 681 million. Estimates ranged from 552 to 750 million so the news was especially bearish.

Stocks were down 17% from last year. Of the total, 275 million bushels were on-farm storage, down 12% from last year and off-farm storage was 549 million bushels, down 19% from last year. The June-August indicated disappearance was 1.94 billion bushels which was down from 2.16 billion last year.

Excellent weather for harvest over the weekend, ideas that the northern Iowa/Minnesota/Dakotas crops have been spared any freeze damage with a warm forecast on the horizon and expectations for a record corn crop harvest ahead were all factors which were also seen as negative.

News that the USDA revised 2013 spring wheat plantings down 600,000 acres from the August production report could insinuate that the USDA may be more likely to use FSA acreage data to adjust both corn and soybean acres lower.

Traders now see the strong possibility of yield jumping to the 158-160 level for the October USDA update which will more than offset an adjustment lower in planted area.

The COT report on Friday showed a record high net short position from speculators in corn which may have sparked some buying.

Weather, yield reports and export competition appear to be negative forces for now and ahead of the USDA update, the market was trading unchanged on the day which was down 8 cents from the early peak.

Weekly export inspections came in at 21.9 million bushels which was a little higher than expected. Shipments need to average 23.9 million bushels per week to reach the USDA export forecast for the season.

November Rice finished down 0.27 at 15.13, equal to the high and equal to the low.

Soy Futures Closed Lower

November Soybeans finished down 37 at 1282 3/4, 34 1/4 off the high and 2 3/4 up from the low. January Soybeans closed down 36 1/2 at 1285. This was 2 1/2 up from the low and 33 1/4 off the high.

December Soymeal closed down 12.9 at 405.4. This was 1.4 up from the low and 13.5 off the high.

December Soybean Oil finished down 0.71 at 41.1, 0.7 off the high and 0.15 up from the low.

November soybeans closed 37 cents lower on the session and pushed down to the lowest level since August 19th. The market also touched the 100-day moving average for the first time since August 15th.

A combination of a slightly bearish stocks number, excellent harvest weather and speculative long liquidation selling helped to pressure. The USDA report was considered bearish against trade expectations.

September 1st soybean stocks were pegged at 141 million bushels which was 17 million bushels above trade expectations. The range of estimates was 106 to 155 million bushels so the actual stocks number was considered bearish.

The USDA adjusted their estimate for 2012 production higher by 18.6 million bushels which helped to push stocks up higher than expected. Stocks were down 17% from last year.

Of the total, 39.6 million bushels were on-farm storage, up 3% from last year and off-farm storage was 101 million bushels, down 23% from last year.

The June-August indicated disappearance was 294 million bushels which was down 41% from last year. News that the USDA revised 2013 spring wheat plantings down 600,000 acres from the August production report could insinuate that the USDA may be more likely to use FSA acreage data to adjust both corn and soybean acres lower.

However, the market seems most concerned that average yield will be adjusted higher and this may have been the factor to help drive the market lower. Weekly export inspections came in at 14.3 million bushels which was a little lower than expected.

Shipments need to average 27.5 million bushels per week to reach the USDA export forecast for the season. December soybean oil closed 71 lower and down to the lowest level since July of 2010. December meal closed down $12.90.

Wheat Futures Closed Lower

December Wheat finished down 4 1/2 at 678 1/2, 16 1/4 off the high and 1 3/4 up from the low. March Wheat closed down 4 1/2 at 687. This was 1 3/4 up from the low and 16 off the high.

December wheat closed near 4 cents lower on the session but down more than 15 cents from the mid-session peak.

The USDA stocks report for wheat was considered bullish against trader estimates and the market saw an initial burst of buying after the release but weakness in the other grains pulled down wheat to lower on the day shortly after the release.

September 1st stocks came in at 1.855 billion bushels as compared with trade expectations near 1.915 billion. Estimates ranged from 1.819 to 1.999 billion. Stocks were down 12% from last year. Of the total, 547 million bushels were on-farm storage, down 5% from last year and off-farm storage was 1.31 billion bushels, down 13% from last year.

The June-August indicated disappearance was 991 million bushels which was up 10% from last year. US All Wheat production came in at 2.128 billion bushels as compared with trade expectations at 2.108 billion bushels. All winter wheat was 1.534 as compared with expectations for 1.541 billion.

Spring wheat production came in at 531.74 million vs. trade expectations at 512 million bushels. Spring wheat planted area was revised down by 600,000 acres but the report saw a jump of near 4 bushels per acre in the yield which caused production to come in near 20 million bushels above expectations.

Weekly export inspections came in at 32.9 million bushels which was a little lower than expected. Shipments need to average 17 million bushels per week to reach the USDA export forecast for the season.

Cumulative shipments have reached 45.1% of the USDA export projection for the entire year as compared with 34.9% as the 5-year average for this time of the year. The early rally pushed the market up to the highest level since July 16th.

December KC wheat closed up 7 3/4 cents and pushed up to the highest level since June 24th. A warm and dry September helped to drive Canadian wheat production estimates up more than 2 million tonnes from the August forecast to a record high 32.9 million tonnes for the Ag Canada production report on Friday.

December Oats closed up 2 1/2 at 319 1/4. This was 5 1/2 up from the low and 3 1/2 off the high.


Daily Crop Report - Copyright � 2008 CME. All rights reserved.


TheCropSite News Desk

Our Sponsors

Partners


Seasonal Picks

Country Dance