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Wyckoff's Closing Grains: Corn Closes Lower

30 September 2013
Jim Wyckoff Commentary -  TheCropSite

US - December corn futures closed down 9 cents at $4.45 Monday. Prices closed nearer the session low, hit a fresh three-year low, scored a bearish "outside day" down on the daily bar chart, and closed at a bearish monthly and quarterly low close.

Monday's USDA quarterly grain stocks report was deemed bearish for corn, showing larger U.S. corn stocks than expected.

Corn bulls' next upside price objective is to push and close prices above solid technical resistance at Monday's high of $4.62.

The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at $4.25. First resistance for December corn is seen at $4.50 and then at $4.55.

First support is seen at Monday's low of $4.42 1/4 and then at $4.40. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.0

November soybeans closed down 33 1/4 cents at $13.86 1/2 a bushel Monday. Prices closed near the session low and hit a fresh five-week low today.

A bearish USDA reading on soybean stockpiles helped to sink soybeans, as did pressure from the U.S. harvest that will hit full throttle this week.

Cash soybean basis levels are also weak. Soybean bears now have the overall near-term technical advantage.

Prices are in a four-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. The next near-term upside technical breakout objective for the soybean bulls is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at $13.20 a bushel.

The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is pushing prices below solid technical support at $12.50. 

First support is seen at Monday's low of $12.81 and then at $12.75. First resistance is seen at $12.90 and then at $13.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.0.

December soybean meal closed down $13.00 at $405.30 Monday. Prices closed nearer the session low and hit a fresh five-week low. The meal bears now have the slight overall near-term technical advantage.

The next upside price objective for the bulls is to produce a close above solid technical resistance at $420.00.

The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at $400.00.

First resistance comes in at $408.10 and then at $410.00. First support is seen at Monday's low of $404.00 and then at $400.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.5

December bean oil closed down 73 points at 41.08 cents Monday. Prices closed nearer the session high and careened to another contract low.

The bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside price breakout objective for the bean oil bulls is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at 42.50 cents.

Bean oil bears' next downside technical price breakout objective is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at 40.00 cents. First resistance is seen at 41.50 cents and then at Monday's high of 41.80 cents.

First support is seen at Monday's low of 40.95 cents and then at 40.75 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.0

December Chicago SRW wheat closed down 3 1/2 cents at $6.79 1/2 Monday. Prices closed nearer the session low after hitting a fresh 2.5-month high early on today.

Monday's USDA report was deemed mildly bullish for wheat, but the solid losses in corn and soybeans spilled over into the wheat market.

A bullish rounding-bottom reversal pattern has formed on the daily bar chart. While the wheat market bears still have the slight overall near-term technical advantage, bulls have gained good upside technical momentum and recent price action suggests a major market low is now in place.

Wheat bulls' next upside breakout objective is to push and close Chicago SRW prices above solid technical resistance at Monday's high of $6.94 3/4 a bushel.

The next downside price breakout objective for the wheat futures bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at $6.50.

First resistance is seen at last week's high of $6.85 1/2 and then at $6.90. First support lies at Monday's low of $6.76 3/4 and then at $6.75. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.5.

December HRW wheat closed up 8 1/4 cents at $7.40 Monday. Prices closed near mid-range and hit a fresh three-month high. Prices Monday also closed at a bullish monthly and quarterly high close.

The HRW wheat market bulls now have the slight overall near-term technical advantage. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at $7.50.

The bears' next downside breakout objective is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at $7.10. First resistance is seen at Monday's high of $7.46 3/4 and then at $7.50.

First support is seen at $7.35 and then at $7.30. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5

December oats closed up 2 1/4 cents at $3.19 Monday. Prices closed near mid-range and scored a bullish "outside day" up on the daily bar chart. Bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage.

Bears' next downside price breakout objective is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at the contract low of $3.03. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at $3.25 3/4.

First support lies at $3.15 and then at Monday's low of $3.13 3/4. First resistance is seen at Monday's high of $3.22 3/4 and then at $3.25 3/4. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.5

TheCropSite News Desk

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%): 1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.



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