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CME: Corn Futures Closed Lower Thursday

01 November 2013

US - December Corn finished down 2 at 428 1/4, 8 off the high and 1 1/4 up from the low. March Corn closed down 2 1/2 at 439 1/4. This was 1 up from the low and 8 1/4 off the high.

December corn closed 2 cents lower on the session but down 8 cents from the highs. It was an outside-day down and the break pushed the market down to the lowest level since August 25th of 2010.

The market pushed to a 3-day peak early this morning, just after the very strong export sales news but "buy the rumor, sell the fact" selling emerged on the rally to drive the market down off of the early highs.

Export sales for the 3-week period came in at 4.555 million tonnes for the current marketing year and 738,000 for the next marketing year for a total of 5.293 million tonnes which is about twice the lofty expectations.

China was a buyer of 777,600 tonnes but the big surprise was buying of 1.689 million tonnes from Mexico for this crop season and 734,400 tonnes for the 2014/15 season.

As of October 24th, cumulative corn sales stand at 66.0% of the USDA forecast for 2013/2014 (current) marketing year versus a 5 year average of 45.5% sold by this time of the year. Sales of just 238,000 tonnes are needed each week to reach the USDA forecast.

In addition, private exporters reported daily sales of 174,000 tonnes of US corn to South Korea and 123,040 tonnes of US corn to Japan.

The International Grain Council raised their forecast for world production to 948 million tonnes, up 5 million tonnes from last month and up 85 million tonnes from last year.

November Rice finished down 0.23 at 15.025, equal to the high and equal to the low.

Soy Futures Closed Lower

November Soybeans finished down 7 1/4 at 1280 1/4, 19 3/4 off the high and 3/4 up from the low. January Soybeans closed down 11 at 1265 1/2. This was 1/2 up from the low and 22 off the high.

December Soymeal closed down 8.2 at 403.6. This was 0.6 up from the low and 12.2 off the high.

December Soybean Oil finished down 0.29 at 41.33, 0.79 off the high and 0.03 up from the low.

January soybeans closed 11 cents lower on the session and down near 22 cents from the early peak. Aggressive long liquidation selling centered on meal (Dec down $8.20) helped to drag the market lower even with the extremely high soybean sales news.

The market surged to trade 11 higher after the export news but the lack of new buying interest and plenty of traders wanting to exit longs ahead of next week's crop production update helped to pressure.

For the 3-week period during the government shutdown, export sales came in at 4.742 million tonnes compared with trade expectations for 2.4-3.0 million.

China was a noted buyer of 2.112 million tonnes and unknown destination was 550,800 tonnes of the soybean total.

Cumulative soybean sales stand at 86.4% of the USDA forecast for the 2013/2014 marketing year versus a 5 year average of 58.4% for this time of the year. Sales of just 114,000 metric tonnes are needed each week to reach the USDA forecast.

Net meal sales came in at 805,200 tonnes which was about as expected. Cumulative soybean meal sales stand at 54.2% of the USDA forecast for 2013/2014 (current) marketing year versus a 5 year average of 34.8%.

Sales of 81,000 tonnes are needed each week to reach the USDA forecast. Net oil sales came in at 14,500 metric tonnes.

With the sales out of the way, trade focus shifted to good weather in South America and expectations for a revision higher in the yield forecast for the November update. Failure to attract new buyers on the bullish news may have added to the long liquidation selling.

Wheat Futures Closed Lower

December Wheat finished down 7 1/2 at 667 1/2, 9 1/2 off the high and 1/2 up from the low. March Wheat closed down 7 at 679 1/2. This was 3/4 up from the low and 9 off the high.

December wheat closed moderately lower on the session and down below the 50-day moving average for the first time since September 23rd.

The break pushed the market down to the lowest level since September 25th. The 3-week total export sales for wheat came in at 1.309 million tonnes as compared with trade expectations of 1.75 million.

Cumulative wheat sales stand at 68.4% of the USDA forecast for 2013/2014 (current) marketing year versus a 5 year average of 57.4%. Sales of 301,000 tonnes are needed each week to reach the USDA forecast.

The International Grain Council raised their forecast for world production to 696 million tonnes, up 3 million tonnes from last month and up 6% from last year.

Traders see increasing export potential from India as a reason to suspect more sluggish US and European sales over the near-term.

December Kansas City wheat closed down 7 1/4 cents on the day and pushed down to the lowest level since October 1st. This left the market up just 1 cent for the month of October.

December Oats closed down 3 at 330 1/4. This was 2 1/4 up from the low and 6 3/4 off the high.


Daily Crop Report - Copyright � 2008 CME. All rights reserved.


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