TheCropSite.com- news, features, articles and disease information for the crop industry

News

Wyckoff's Morning Report: Markets Narrowly Mixed Overnight

19 November 2013
Jim Wyckoff Commentary -  TheCropSite

GLOBAL - In overnight news, the German ZEW economic expectations survey was released and hit a four-year high. The ZEW expectations indicator rose to 54.6 in November from 52.8 in October.

However, the number was slightly below market expectations of a reading of 55.0. However, the ZEW current conditions index dropped to 28.7 in November from 29.7 in October. The ZEW news did not have a positive impact on the European stocks markets, which were mostly weaker Tuesday.

The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development reported Tuesday the major focus of concern for the Paris-based body has shifted from the European Union and its sovereign debt problems to the U.S. and its fiscal and budget problems. The OECD noted surprise the market place has focused so much on the timing of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s expected “tapering” of its monthly bond-buying program, also called quantitative easing.

My take on the market place’s keener focus on the Fed-tapering matter: There has been little else of significance for traders and investors to focus upon. The world geopolitical front has been quiet, so the actions of the world’s largest economy’s central bank have been center stage by default. The OECD also forecast its 34-members countries’ collective economy will grow by 1.2% in 2013, by 2.3% in 2014 and by 2.7% in 2015.

Not surprisingly then, the market place is awaiting the U.S. Federal Reserve’s FOMC minutes release on Wednesday afternoon. The minutes will be from the October meeting, and as always traders and investors will be scrutinizing the report for any fresh clues on Fed monetary policy moves upcoming.

Reports say there continues to be slack demand for physical gold coming out of the two largest gold-importing countries: China and India.

U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday includes the weekly Goldman Sachs and Johnson Redbook retail sales reports, and the employment cost index.

Wyckoff’s Daily Risk Rating: 5.0 (The U.S. stock indexes continue to trek higher and hit new record or multi-year highs. However, now even the stock market bulls are getting jittery that the major bull run is at or near an exhaustion point.)

(Wyckoff’s Daily Risk Rating is your way to quickly gauge investor risk appetite in the world market place each day. Each day I assess the “risk-on” or “risk-off” trader mentality in the market place with a numerical reading of 1 to 10, with 1 being least risk-averse (most risk-on) and 10 being the most risk-averse (risk-off).

--Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading, on profit taking. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are still bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the overnight high of 1,784.90 and then at Monday’s record high of 1,799.50. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders today is located at 1,778.00 and then at 1,765.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5

Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly lower early today on profit taking. The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is located at the overnight high of 3,390.00 and then at 3,400.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen at 3,375.00 and then at 3,360.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5.

Dow futures: Prices are slightly lower early today, on mild profit taking. Buy stops likely reside just above technical resistance at Monday’s record high of 15,985 and then at 16,000. Sell stops likely reside just below technical support at Monday’s low of 15,910 and then at 15,850. Shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day moving average is above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are slightly higher early today, on short covering. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 131 26/32 and then at 132 even. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 131 13/32 and then at 131 even. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are slightly lower early today. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at Monday’s high of 125.26.5 and then at 126.00.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 125.19.5 and then at Monday’s low of 125.11.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The March U.S. dollar index is near steady early today. Bulls are fading. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are bearish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at Monday’s high of 81.090 and then at Friday’s high of 81.305. Shorter-term support is seen at Monday’s low of 80.785 and then at 80.550. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

January Nymex crude oil prices are slightly lower early today and hovering not far above last week’s 4.5-month low. Bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in an 11-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. In January Nymex crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at the overnight high of $93.76 and then at $94.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at last week’s low of $93.17 and then at $92.50. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

GRAINS

Markets were again narrowly mixed overnight. Corn bears are in firm technical command. Soybean bulls are fading a bit, while wheat bears are also in full control. Fundamentally, with the U.S. harvest nearly complete, trader attention turns to the South American corn and soybean planting and growing season just ahead. Worldwide export demand for U.S. grains is also at the forefront of the market place. The beaten-down corn and wheat futures markets should start to draw some better demand interest from end-users of those grains world-wide.

TheCropSite News Desk

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%): 1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.



Our Sponsors

Partners


Seasonal Picks

Country Dance