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Jim Wyckoff's Morning Report: US, Iran Reach Agreement

25 November 2013
Jim Wyckoff Commentary -  TheCropSite

GLOBAL - The surprise geopolitical news over the weekend is that Iran has reached agreement with the U.S., Russia and other major nations to see reduced economic sanctions against Iran in exchange for its pledge to stop its nuclear weapons development program.

This news was not at all expected and has pushed crude oil prices lower and helped most world stock markets push higher Monday. Not only will there now be more oil on the world market place (from Iran) but also the Middle East just saw its geopolitical volatility downtick a notch or two. The U.S. and Iran had not had any diplomatic relations in over 30 years. The safe-haven gold market also saw selling pressure tied to the Iran news.

Trading activity and market volumes may decline as this week progresses, due to the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday on Thursday.

U.S. economic data due for release Monday includes the pending home sales index and the Texas manufacturing outlook survey.

Wyckoff’s Daily Risk Rating: 3.0 (The world market place has cheered the Iran nuclear de-escalation news, as one major flashpoint in the world appears to have gone away, at least for now.)

(Wyckoff’s Daily Risk Rating is your way to quickly gauge investor risk appetite in the world market place each day. Each day I assess the “risk-on” or “risk-off” trader mentality in the market place with a numerical reading of 1 to 10, with 1 being least risk-averse (most risk-on) and 10 being the most risk-averse (risk-off).

--Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading and hit another record high overnight. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 1,815.00 and then at 1,825.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders today is located at 1,800.00 and then at Friday’s low of 1,792.20. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0

Nasdaq index futures: Prices are higher early today and hit another 13-year high overnight. The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is located at the overnight high of 3,435.50 and then at 3,450.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen at the overnight low of 3,320.25 and then at Friday’s low of 3,400.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0.

Dow futures: Prices are higher early today and hit a new record high overnight. Buy stops likely reside just above technical resistance at 16,100 and then at 16,150. Sell stops likely reside just below technical support at 16,000 and then at Friday’s low of 15,950. Shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day moving average is above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are near steady early today as the market tries to stabilize after hitting a two-month low last Thursday. The bears still have some downside momentum. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at Friday’s high of 130 21/32 and then at 131 even. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 130 6/32 and then at 130 even. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are near steady early today. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 125.11.0 and then at 125.16.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 125.04.0 and then at 125.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The March U.S. dollar index is firmer early today. The greenback bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are bearish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at Friday’s high of 81.260 and then at last week’s high of 81.505. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 80.700 and then at the November low of 80.550. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

January Nymex crude oil prices are lower early today, following the weekend Iran news. Bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a three-month-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. In January Nymex crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at the overnight high of $94.19 and then at $95.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the November low of $93.17 and then at $92.50. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

GRAINS

Markets were mixed overnight. Focus of the market place has turned to the demand side of the equation, now that the U.S. harvest is complete. Monday’s weekly USDA export inspections report will be closely scrutinized by grain traders. Recent strong demand for U.S. soybeans from China has helped support the soybean futures market. Technically, corn bears are still in firm command. Soybean bulls have regained the near-term technical advantage, and wheat bears remain in full technical control.

TheCropSite News Desk

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%): 1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.



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