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Jim Wyckoff's Morning Report: Markets Mostly Weaker Overnight

26 November 2013
Jim Wyckoff Commentary -  TheCropSite

GLOBAL - It’s a quiet and uneventful market place Tuesday. Overseas stock markets saw some mild profit taking from Monday’s rallies.

Trading activity and market volumes may continue to dwindle as the week progresses, due to the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday on Thursday.

U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday includes the weekly Goldman Sachs and Johnson Redbook retail sales reports, new residential construction, the Richmond Fed business survey, and the S&P/Case-Shiller home price index.

Wyckoff’s Daily Risk Rating: 5.0 (It’s a quieter world market place Tuesday.)

(Wyckoff’s Daily Risk Rating is your way to quickly gauge investor risk appetite in the world market place each day. Each day I assess the “risk-on” or “risk-off” trader mentality in the market place with a numerical reading of 1 to 10, with 1 being least risk-averse (most risk-on) and 10 being the most risk-averse (risk-off).

--Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading on mild profit taking after hitting a record high on Monday. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at Monday’s record high of 1,808.80 and then at 1,825.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders today is located at Monday’s low of 1,799.00 and then at 1,792.20. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 5.0

Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly lower early today on mild profit taking after hitting a 13-year high on Monday. The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is located at Monday’s high of 3,437.25 and then at 3,450.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen at Monday’s low of 3,320.25 and then at 3,400.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0.

Dow futures: Prices are slightly lower early today on mild profit taking after hitting a record high Monday. Buy stops likely reside just above technical resistance at 16,100 and then at 16,150. Sell stops likely reside just below technical support at 16,000 and then at 15,950. Shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day moving average is above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are firmer early today on short covering. The bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage as prices are in a choppy, four-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 131 4/32 and then at 131 16/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 130 23/32 and then at Monday’s low of 130 6/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are firmer early today on short covering. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 125.22.5 and then at last week’s high of 125.26.5. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at 125.10.0 and then at Monday’s low of 125.04.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The March U.S. dollar index is lower early today. The greenback bears have the overall near-term technical advantage amid recent choppy trading. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are bearish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at Monday’s high of 81.240 and then at last week’s high of 81.505. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 80.860 and then at Monday’s low of 80.700. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

January Nymex crude oil prices are slightly higher early today, on tepid short covering. Bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a three-month-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. In January Nymex crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at the overnight high of $94.69 and then at $95.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $94.00 and then at $93.50. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

GRAINS

Markets were mostly weaker overnight, on a corrective pullback from modest gains scored Monday. Focus of the market place is on the demand side of the equation. Monday’s weekly USDA export inspections report was deemed neutral to bearish. Technically, corn bears are in firm command. Soybean bulls have the near-term technical advantage, and wheat bears remain in full technical control.

TheCropSite News Desk

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%): 1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.



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