TheCropSite.com- news, features, articles and disease information for the crop industry

News

Jim Wyckoff's Morning Report: EU Unemployment Falls

29 November 2013
Jim Wyckoff Commentary -  TheCropSite

GLOBAL - In overnight news, the number of unemployed in the European Union dropped to its lowest annual level since April of 2011, at 12.1% in October from 12.2% in September.

Meantime, the inflation rate in the EU rose to 0.9% in November from 0.7% in October, on an annual basis. This data somewhat assuages recent fears the EU is slipping into a deflationary period.

Otherwise, it was a quiet trading affair in Asia and Europe on Friday. The U.S. stock market and some other markets close early on Friday, following the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday on Thursday. There is no major U.S. economic data due for release on Friday.

There was an “incident” earlier this week when U.S. military planes purposely flow over some islands in the East China Sea, which China now claims as its own, but Japan also claims it owns. China had just sent out a dispatch saying those islands were now under its airspace watch. China has sent its only aircraft carrier to the region of the islands. One U.S. military official called China’s lone aircraft carrier a floating museum, in which a Chinese plane has apparently never been launched from it. Right now, this situation is not a major market factor, but it does bear watching over the weekend.

Focus of traders and investors is turning to December, when the European Central Bank and U.S. Federal Reserve hold their next monetary policy meetings. The market place for many weeks has been preoccupied with the precise timing of when the Fed will alter its monetary policy and back off from its monthly bond-buying program—called quantitative easing. Meantime, the ECB has just eased its monetary policy and the market place is wondering what ECB president Mario Draghi will have up his sleeve at next week’s ECB meeting.

Wyckoff’s Daily Risk Rating: 6.0 (It will be a quieter, post-holiday market place Friday, but the weekend and the China news places just a bit more risk aversion in the market place.)

(Wyckoff’s Daily Risk Rating is your way to quickly gauge investor risk appetite in the world market place each day. Each day I assess the “risk-on” or “risk-off” trader mentality in the market place with a numerical reading of 1 to 10, with 1 being least risk-averse (most risk-on) and 10 being the most risk-averse (risk-off), and 5 being neutral.

--Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading and hit another record high overnight. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the overnight record high of 1,809.70 and then at 1,825.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders today is located at this week’s low of 1,799.00 and then at 1,792.20. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

Nasdaq index futures: Prices are higher early today and hit another 13-year high overnight. The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is located at 3,500.00 and then at 3,515.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen at the overnight low of 3,468.75 and then at 3,450.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.5.

Dow futures: Prices are higher early today and hit another record high overnight. Buy stops likely reside just above technical resistance at 16,150 and then at 16,200. Sell stops likely reside just below technical support at Friday’s low of 16,045 and then at 16,000. Shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day moving average is above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are weaker early today. The bears have the overall near-term technical advantage as prices are in a choppy, four-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 130 24/32 and then at 131 even. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 130 8/32 and then at 130 even. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are weaker early today. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 125.14.5 and then at Wednesday’s high of 125.23.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at this week’s low of 125.04.0 and then at 125.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The March U.S. dollar index is lower early today. The greenback bears have the overall near-term technical advantage amid recent choppy trading. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are bearish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 80.805 and then at 81.000. Shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 80.675 and then at 80.500. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

January Nymex crude oil prices are firmer early today on tepid short covering after hitting a five-month low on Wednesday. Bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a three-month-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. In January Nymex crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at $93.00 and then at Wednesday’s high of $93.60. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $92.00 and then at this week’s low of $91.77. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

GRAINS

Markets were closed overnight. Grain traders will closely scrutinize this morning’s weekly USDA export sales report.
The South American planting and growing season for corn and soybeans is now a market factor. So far, weather conditions in South America are favorable, which is a bearish underlying factor for soybeans and to a lesser degree corn. Technically, corn bears are in firm command. Soybean bulls have the near-term technical advantage, and wheat bears remain in full technical control.

TheCropSite News Desk

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%): 1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.



Our Sponsors

Partners


Seasonal Picks

Country Dance