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Wyckoff's Morning Report: Corn Lower Overnight

20 December 2013
Jim Wyckoff Commentary -  TheCropSite

GLOBAL - The March NASDAQ 100 was higher overnight and is poised to extend the rally off Wednesday's low. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term.

NOTE: I am out of the office today. My friend and fellow market analyst Ken Seehusen produced my report. I’ll be back at work full throttle next Monday morning.--Jim

STOCK INDEXES

If March renews this year's rally, monthly resistance crossing at 3668.00 is the next upside target. Closes below Wednesday's low crossing at 3415.25 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted and would then open the door for additional weakness near-term. First resistance is last Monday's high crossing at 3519.25. Second resistance is monthly resistance crossing at 3668.00. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 3415.25. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 3354.00.

The March S&P 500 was higher overnight and is poised to extend this year's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends this year's rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below Monday's low crossing at 1755.00 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 1806.30. Second resistance is unknown. First support is Monday's low crossing at 1755.00. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 1738.70.

INTEREST RATES

March T-bonds were slightly lower overnight while extending this month's trading range. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. Closes above last Tuesday's high crossing at 130-11 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March renews the decline off October's high, weekly support crossing at 125-29 is the next downside target. First resistance is last Tuesday's high crossing at 130-11. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 131-09. First support is December's low crossing at 128-01. Second support is weekly support crossing at 125-29.

ENERGY MARKETS

February Nymex crude oil was lower overnight due to profit taking and is trading below the 38% retracement level of the August-November decline crossing at 99.15. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If February extends the rally off November's low, the 62% retracement level of the August-November decline crossing at 100.82 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 96.61 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at 99.49. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the August-November decline crossing at 100.82. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 96.61. Second support is November's low crossing at 92.10.

CURRENCIES

The March Dollar was higher overnight as it extends the rally off Wednesday's low. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends this week's rally, December's high crossing at 81.18 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 80.35 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is December's high crossing at 81.18. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 81.50. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 79.50. Second support is October's low crossing at 79.35.

GRAINS

March corn was lower overnight as it extends this month's narrow trading range. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above last Tuesday's high crossing at 4.40 3/4 are needed to renew the rally off this month's low. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 4.49 1/2 are needed to confirm that a seasonal low has been posted. If March renews this year's decline, weekly support crossing at 3.99 3/4 is the next downside target. First resistance is last Tuesday's high crossing at 4.40 3/4. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 4.49 3/4. First support is this month's low crossing at 4.18 1/2. Second support is weekly support crossing at 3.99 3/4.

March wheat was lower overnight as it extends the decline off October's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off October's high, weekly support crossing at 6.07 1/2 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 6.43 1/4 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 6.26 1/2. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 6.43 1/4. First support is the overnight low crossing at 6.07 1/2. Second support is weekly support crossing at 6.07 1/2.

January soybeans were higher overnight as it consolidated some of Wednesday's decline. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 13.12 1/4 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If January renews the rally off November's low, the 75% retracement level of the August-November decline crossing at 13.66 3/4 is the next upside target. First resistance is last Tuesday's high crossing at 13.53 1/2. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the August-November decline crossing at 13.66 3/4. First support is the reaction low crossing at 13.12 1/4. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 12.68 1/4.

TheCropSite News Desk

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%): 1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.



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