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Wyckoff's Morning Report: Truce Between Ukrainian Protesters and Gov't

21 February 2014
Jim Wyckoff Commentary -  TheCropSite

GLOBAL - In overnight news, reports said there has been another truce agreement between Ukrainian protesters and government officials.

The Ukrainian president said he will call for early elections. However, there was also a truce announced a couple days ago that lasted less than 24 hours. Violence in Ukraine this week is getting major news coverage. Television images have shown protesters being shot and bodies piling up. If that situation sees violence escalate, more risk aversion would enter the market place to more significantly impact markets. I would not be surprised to see keener risk aversion in the market place as Friday progresses, heading into a very uncertain weekend in the Ukraine.

There is a Group of 20 economic and finance ministers meeting in Sydney, Australia, this weekend. It’s likely the group will discuss the recent turmoil in some emerging market currencies. The event could produce some market-sensitive developments come Monday morning.

U.S. economic data due for release Friday is light and includes existing home sales.

Wyckoff’s Daily Risk Rating: 7.0 (The violence in Ukraine this week and the approaching weekend are keeping some increased risk in the market place.)

(Wyckoff’s Daily Risk Rating is your way to quickly gauge investor risk appetite in the world market place each day. Each day I assess the “risk-on” or “risk-off” trader mentality in the market place with a numerical reading of 1 to 10, with 1 being least risk-averse (most risk-on) and 10 being the most risk-averse (risk-off), and 5 being neutral.

--Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. The bulls still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the all-time high of 1,846.50 and then at 1,850.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders today is located at the overnight low of 1,835.70 and then at 1,825.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

Nasdaq index futures: Prices are firmer early today. Bulls have upside near-term technical momentum as prices hover near a 13.5-year high. The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is located at this week’s high of 3,684.75 and then at 3,700.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen at the overnight low of 3,669.25 and then at 3,650.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.

Dow futures: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Buy stops likely reside just above technical resistance at this week’s high of 16,195 and then at 16,250. Sell stops likely reside just below technical support at 16,100 and then at 16,050. Shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day moving average is above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are slightly firmer early today. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 133 even and then at Thursday’s high of 133 15/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 132 20/32 and then at this week’s low of 132 12/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are near steady early today. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 125.19.0 and then at 125.24.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 125.14.0 and then at this week’s low of 125.11.5. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The March U.S. dollar index is higher again early today on more short covering. Bulls are showing some strength late this week. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are bullish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at Thursday’s high of 80.465 and then at 80.600. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 80.330 and then at 80.220. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

April Nymex crude oil prices are slightly lower early today on more mild profit taking, and hovering not far below Wednesday’s new contract high. Bulls still have near-term technical momentum. A steep six-week-old uptrend is in place on the daily bar chart. In April Nymex crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at the overnight high of $102.92 and then at the contract high of $103.29. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $102.00 and then at $101.50. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

GRAINS

Markets were slightly lower overnight, on corrective pullbacks from recent good gains. Grain market bulls are enjoying success recently as prices are near their recent highs. Traders will be watching for fresh fundamental information coming out of today’s USDA Ag Outlook conference. Technically, the grain market bulls still have upside near-term technical momentum to suggest market bottoms are in place for corn and wheat.

TheCropSite News Desk

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%): 1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.



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