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Wyckoff's Closing Grains: Corn Closes Lower

28 February 2014
Jim Wyckoff Commentary -  TheCropSite

UK - May corn futures closed down 5 cents at $4.56 Thursday.

Prices closed near the session low on profit taking after hitting a four-month high on Wednesday. Corn prices are still in a seven-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. Corn bulls and bears are on a level near-term technical playing field. Corn bulls' next upside price objective is to push and close prices above solid technical resistance at this week’s high of $4.65. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is pushing and closing prices below solid support at $4.50. First resistance for March corn is seen at $4.57 1/2 and then at $4.60. First support is seen at this week’s low of $4.52 and then at $4.50. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0

May soybeans closed down 4 3/4 cents at $13.92 a bushel Thursday. Prices closed near the low on profit taking after hitting another contract high early on today. The market could not rally in bullish export sales news, which suggests all the bullish news has been factored into prices. Today’s price action also produced a bearish buying “exhaustion tail” on the daily bar chart—whereby prices pushed to a new high and then backed off sharply as the bulls ran out of gas. This is a clue that a market top is now in place. But right now the soybean bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage. The next near-term upside technical breakout objective for the soybean bulls is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at today’s contract high of $14.45 1/2 a bushel. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is pushing prices below solid technical support at this week’s low of $13.58 1/4. First resistance is seen at $14.00 and then at $14.20. First support is seen at $13.81 1/4 and then at $13.75. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.5.

May soybean meal closed down $2.50 at $451.20 Thursday. Prices closed nearer the session low after spiking to another contract high. Today’s price action also produced a bearish buying “exhaustion tail” on the daily bar chart—whereby prices pushed to a new high and then backed off sharply as the bulls ran out of gas. This is a clue that a market top is now in place. Bulls so still have the overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is to produce a close above solid technical resistance at today’s contract high of $472.90. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at $430.00. First resistance comes in at Wednesday’s high of $454.80 and then at $457.50. First support is seen at $449.10 and then at $444.80. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.5

May bean oil closed down 37 points at 41.09 cents Thursday. Prices closed near the session low after hitting a three-month high early on. Profit taking was featured today. A steep four-week-old uptrend is still in place on the daily bar chart. The bean oil bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside price breakout objective for the bean oil bulls is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at 42.50 cents. Bean oil bears' next downside technical price breakout objective is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at 40.00 cents. First resistance is seen at 41.64 cents and then at today’s high of 41.96 cents. First support is seen at this week’s low of 40.65 cents and then at 40.50 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0

May Chicago SRW wheat closed down 14 3/4 cents at $5.90 3/4 Thursday. Prices closed nearer the session low today and hit a two-week low. Bulls are quickly fading. Prices Tuesday hit a two-month high. The wheat bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. Wheat bulls’ next upside breakout objective is to push and close Chicago SRW prices above solid technical resistance at this week’s high of $6.20 a bushel. The next downside price breakout objective for the wheat futures bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at $5.75. First resistance is seen at $6.00 and then at today’s high of $6.07. First support lies at today’s low of $5.88 1/4 and then at $5.85. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.5.

May HRW wheat closed down 14 3/4 cents at $6.65 1/4 Thursday. Prices closed near the session low on more profit taking today. The wheat bulls are fading and need to show fresh power soon. Bulls’ next upside price breakout objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at this week’s high of $6.91 3/4. The bears' next downside breakout objective is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at $6.50. First resistance is seen at $6.70 and then at $6.75. First support is seen at today’s low of $6.65 and then at $6.60. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.5

May oats closed up 1/4 cent at $4.61 Thursday. Prices hit a contract high Wednesday but then backed way off to score a bearish “key reversal” down on the daily bar chart, which is a technical clue that a market top is now in place. This market went parabolic, which also suggests a top is close at hand. The bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in an accelerating four-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. Would-be top pickers still do not want to stand in front of this steaming locomotive. Bears' next downside price breakout objective is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at $4.25. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at Wednesday’s contract high of $4.98. First support lies at $4.50 and then at $4.44 1/2. First resistance is seen at $4.68 1/4 and then at today’s high of $4.76 1/2. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.5

TheCropSite News Desk

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%): 1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.



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