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Monday's Monthly USDA Report Deemed Neutral to Slightly Bearish for Grain Futures

Monday's Monthly USDA Report Deemed Neutral to Slightly Bearish for Grain Futures

11 March 2014
Jim Wyckoff Commentary -  TheCropSite

ANALYSIS - Grain futures markets retained their weaker daily postures in the wake of Monday's monthly USDA supply and demand report.

Corn and soybeans did slightly extend their earlier losses after the release of the government data.

The carryover updates for corn and wheat came in below pre-report trade expectations and soybean carryover came in slightly higher than traders expected.

For 2013-14 U.S. carryover, corn came in at 1.456 billion bushels in March, down from the February USDA figure of 1.481 billion bushels.

For 2013-14 global carryover, corn was pegged at 158.47 million metric tons (MMT), up from 157.3 MMT in February.

Soybeans saw March U.S. carryover at 145 million bushels, down from the February figure of 150 million bushels. For 2013-14 global carryover, soybeans were seen by USDA at 70.64 MMT, down from February projection of 73.01 MMT.

U.S. wheat carryover in March was 558 million bushels, unchanged from the February estimate. For global carryover, wheat came in at 183.81 MMT in March, up from 183.73 MMT in February.

Old-crop corn exports are now estimated by USDA at 1.625 billion bushels, up 25 million bushels from February. USDA's projection of the national average on-farm cash corn price is now $4.25 to $4.75. For soybeans, USDA did a 20-million-bushel increase in estimated 2013-14 exports.

The export estimate now stands at 1.53 billion bushels. USDA raised the national average on-farm cash soybean price projection to $12.20 to $13.70. On wheat, USDA made no changes on the supply or demand side of the balance sheet.

However, the estimate is about 12 million bu. below the average pre-report trade estimate. USDA now puts the national average on-farm U.S. cash wheat price at $6.75 to $6.95.

Attention of grain traders will now shift to upcoming planting conditions for U.S. corn and soybeans, especially since following a cold, snowy winter for much of the central U.S, and some weather forecasts for a cool early spring.

TheCropSite News Desk

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%): 1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

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