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Jim Wyckoff's Morning Report: No Violence Following Crimea Referendum

18 March 2014
Jim Wyckoff Commentary -  TheCropSite

GLOBAL - The referendum Sunday that saw Crimean voters overwhelmingly choose to secede from Ukraine and be annexed by Russia was not met by violence in the Ukraine.

Also, the threatened U.S. and European Union sanctions were not as tough as some expected. These developments assuaged the market place Monday. On Tuesday traders and investors are just a bit more risk-averse in their trading decisions. Russian president Vladimir Putin is set to deliver a speech Tuesday and is likely to announce he’s adding the Crimea region to the Russian Federation. This situation is still far from stable. Any escalation of tensions in Ukraine would quickly put keen risk-aversion back into the market place. The market place will continue to closely monitor the latest developments in the Ukraine.

Focus of the market place turns to this week’s meeting of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee (FOMC), taking place Tuesday and Wednesday. Fed Chair Janet Yellen will deliver her first press conference after the FOMC meeting’s conclusion Wednesday afternoon. It is expected the FOMC will continue on its “tapering” program, whereby monthly bond purchases are whittled down by $10 billion a month. Recent U.S. economic data has been a mixed bag, which is making it tougher for the market place to read what the Fed’s intentions might be.

U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday includes the weekly Goldman Sachs and Johnson Redbook retail sales reports, the consumer price index, real earnings, new residential construction and building permits, and the FOMC meeting begins. A major snowstorm in Washington, D.C. Monday could delay some of this data.

Wyckoff’s Daily Risk Rating: 6.0 (The Ukraine situation has for the moment de-escalated and has become a tertiary market factor. That could change this week, however.)

(Wyckoff’s Daily Risk Rating is your way to quickly gauge investor risk appetite in the world market place each day. Each day I assess the “risk-on” or “risk-off” trader mentality in the market place with a numerical reading of 1 to 10, with 1 being least risk-averse (most risk-on) and 10 being the most risk-averse (risk-off), and 5 being neutral.

--Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading today. The bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 1,860.00 and then at 1,874.50. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders today is located at the overnight low of 1,846.20 and then at 1,832.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 5.0

Nasdaq index futures: Prices are weaker early today. The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is located at the overnight high of 3,655.50 and then at Monday’s high of 3,669.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen at the overnight low of 3,641.25 and then at 3,625.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0.

Dow futures: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. Buy stops likely reside just above technical resistance at Monday’s high of 16,205 and then at 16,250. Sell stops likely reside just below technical support at Monday’s low of 16,095 and then at 16,000. Shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today, as the 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day moving average is above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are firmer early today on some safe-haven demand and short covering. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 133 7/32 and then at Monday’s high of 133 20/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 132 24/32 and then at 132 16/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are firmer early today on short covering and safe-haven buying. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 124.17.5 and then at Monday’s high of 124.23.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 124.09.0 and then at 124.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The June U.S. dollar index is slightly higher in early trading, on short covering in a bear market. Prices are in a six-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. Bears are in firm technical command. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are neutral early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at Monday’s high of 79.690 and then at 79.830. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 79.470 and then at the contract low of 79.375. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

April Nymex crude oil prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. The bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage. In April Nymex crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at $99.00 and then at Monday’s high of $99.39. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $97.75 and then at Monday’s low of $97.37. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

GRAINS

Markets were firmer overnight on some short covering and bargain hunting. The grain market bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Traders are focusing on export demand and the upcoming U.S. planting season. The March 31 USDA planting intentions report is also coming into view. It’s one of the most important USDA reports of the year.

TheCropSite News Desk

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%): 1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.



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