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Jim Wyckoff's Morning Report: Confidence Low Due to Ukraine Crisis

25 March 2014

GLOBAL - In overnight news, the German Ifo business confidence index weakened in March, in part due to the crisis in Ukraine.

The Ifo index came in at 110.7 in March versus 111.3 in February. Forecasts were for a reading of 108.0 in March.

The leaders of the world’s largest economies (formerly called the G-8 and now called the G-7) moved on Tuesday to kick Russia out of the group. The action was not unexpected and had little market impact.

Traders are still buzzing about the downbeat manufacturing data from China on Monday, which continued a trend of weaker-than-expected economic data coming from the world’s second-largest economy. There is now talk in the market place that China economic officials may soon act to invigorate their economy with monetary stimulus.

U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday includes the weekly Johnson Redbook and Goldman Sachs retail sales reports, the S&P/Case-Shiller home price index, the monthly house price index, new residential sales, the consumer confidence index, and the Richmond Fed business survey.

Wyckoff’s Daily Risk Rating: 6.0 (The Ukraine situation has for the moment de-escalated but is still an unsettling market factor.)

(Wyckoff’s Daily Risk Rating is your way to quickly gauge investor risk appetite in the world market place each day. Each day I assess the “risk-on” or “risk-off” trader mentality in the market place with a numerical reading of 1 to 10, with 1 being least risk-averse (most risk-on) and 10 being the most risk-averse (risk-off), and 5 being neutral.

--Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading today. The bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today.

Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the overnight high of 1,866.00 and then at Monday’s high of 1,876.50. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders today is located at Monday’s low of 1,841.50 and then at 1,832.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

Nasdaq index futures: Prices are higher early today. The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day.

Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is located at 3,630.00 and then at Monday’s high of 3,657.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen at 3,600.00 and then at Monday’s low of 3,575.50. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.

Dow futures: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Buy stops likely reside just above technical resistance at 16,300 and then at 16,350. Sell stops likely reside just below technical support at 16,200 and then at Monday’s low of 16,135. Shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day moving average is below the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are firmer early today. Bulls have regained the overall level near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day.

The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at Monday’s high of 133 11/32 and then at the March high of 134 1/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at 133 even and then at Monday’s low of 132 21/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are firmer early today. Bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today.

Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 123.18.0 and then at 123.24.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 123.12.0 and then at Monday’s low of 123.02.5. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The June U.S. dollar index is firmer in early trading. Bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are bearish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at 80.250 and then at 80.400. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 80.040 and then at Monday’s low of 79.900. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

May Nymex crude oil prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. The bulls have some upside technical momentum on their side.

In May Nymex crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at Monday’s high of $100.29 and then at $101.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $99.26 and then at Monday’s low of $98.25. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

GRAINS

Markets were mostly weaker overnight on some profit taking and chart consolidation. The grain market bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage. The corn market is seeing underlying support from worries about U.S. planting delays. Soybeans are boosted by strong worldwide demand, and the wheat market sees buying interest due to the poor condition of the U.S. hard red winter crop. The March 31 USDA planting intentions report is coming into view. It’s one of the most important USDA reports of the year.

TheCropSite News Desk



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