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Wyckoff's Closing Grains: Corn Closed Lower

03 April 2014
Jim Wyckoff Commentary -  TheCropSite

US - May corn futures closed down 11 3/4 cents at $4.95 3/4 Wednesday.

Prices closed nearer the session low today on profit taking after hitting a seven-month high on Tuesday.

Corn prices are still in a nearly three-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. Corn bulls still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Corn bulls' next upside price objective is to push and close prices above solid technical resistance at this week’s high of $5.12 1/2.

The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is pushing and closing prices below solid support at this week’s low of $4.75 1/2. First resistance for May corn is seen at $5.00 and then at $5.02 1/2. First support is seen at today’s low of $4.90 1/2 and then at $4.85. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.0

May soybeans closed down 22 1/4 cents at $14.62 1/4 a bushel Wednesday. Prices closed nearer the session low after hitting another contract high early on. Price action today scored a bearish “outside day” down on the daily bar chart and if there is good follow-through selling pressure on Thursday then a more significantly bearish “key reversal” down on the daily bar chart would be confirmed.

That would be an early technical clue this market his put in a top. But right now the soybean bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a two-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart.

The next near-term upside technical breakout objective for the soybean bulls is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at $15.00 a bushel. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is pushing prices below solid technical support at this week’s low of $14.23. First resistance is seen at $14.75 and then at $14.85. First support is seen at today’s low of $14.56 and then at $14.50. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.5.

May soybean meal closed down $6.20 at $476.50 Wednesday. Prices closed nearer the session low after hitting another contract high early on today. Price action today scored a bearish “outside day” down on the daily bar chart and if there is good follow-through selling pressure on Thursday then a more significantly bearish “key reversal” down on the daily bar chart would be confirmed.

That would be an early technical clue this market his put in a top. But right now the soybean meal bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a three-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart.

The next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is to produce a close above solid technical resistance at $490.00.

The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at this week’s low of $465.20. First resistance comes in at $480.00 and then at today’s contract high of $486.00. First support is seen at today’s low of $473.10 and then at $470.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.5

May bean oil closed down 55 points at 40.85 cents Wednesday. Prices closed near the session low after hitting a three-week high early on. The bean oil bears have the overall near-term technical advantage.

The next upside price breakout objective for the bean oil bulls is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at today’s high of 42.35 cents. Bean oil bears' next downside technical price breakout objective is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at this week’s low of 39.85 cents. First resistance is seen at 41.00 cents and then at 41.25 cents. First support is seen at today’s low of 40.81 cents and then at 40.37 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.5

May Chicago SRW wheat closed down 16 cents at $6.69 1/4 Wednesday. Prices closed nearer the session low today on more heavy profit taking from recent gains.

My bias is still that this downturn is just a corrective pullback—if corn and soybeans can continue their price uptrends. But if corn and soybeans end this week on the downside, then it could well be that wheat futures have put in a market top.

Poor growing and wheat plant conditions for the U.S. hard red winter crop are still bullish for all wheat futures. The wheat bulls have the slight overall near-term technical advantage, but have faded badly and need to show fresh power soon.

Wheat bulls’ next upside breakout objective is to push and close Chicago SRW prices above solid technical resistance at $7.00 a bushel. The next downside price breakout objective for the wheat futures bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at $6.50. First resistance is seen at $6.76 1/2 and then at $6.83 1/2. First support lies at today’s low of $6.65 and then at $6.55. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5.

May HRW wheat closed down 14 3/4 cents at $7.38 3/4 Wednesday. Prices closed nearer the session low and hit a three-week low today. The wheat bulls still have the slight overall technical advantage, but are fading badly and need to show fresh power soon.

Bulls’ next upside price breakout objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at this week’s high of $7.68 1/2. The bears' next downside breakout objective is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at $7.25. First resistance is seen at $7.50 and then at today’s high of $7.56 3/4. First support is seen at today’s low of $7.34 1/2 and then at $7.25. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5

May oats closed down 2 3/4 cents at $4.08 1/2 Wednesday. Prices closed near the session low today. Bears have the near-term technical advantage. A four-week-old downtrend is in place on the daily bar chart.

Bears' next downside price breakout objective is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at last week’s low of $3.86. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at $4.20. First support lies at $4.05 and then at $4.00. First resistance is seen at $4.10 and then at $4.15. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.0

TheCropSite News Desk

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%): 1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.



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