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Favourable Prospects for Indonesia 2014 Rice, Maize Crops

08 April 2014

INDONESIA - Harvesting of the 2014 main (wet) season paddy crop, which accounts for about 95 percent of annual production, began in early-March and is expected to continue until mid-June.

FAO reports the start of the season was characterized by normal to above-normal rainfall over much of the country, facilitating planting and early development of the rice crop.

However, heavy rains from mid-January to late February resulted in localized flooding causing some limited crop damage particularly in parts of West Java, an important rice-growing area.

By contrast, some rainfall deficit was recorded over the same period in parts of the Island of Sumatra and West Kalimantan.

In spite of these localized adverse weather conditions, the overall damage to the 2014 main season paddy crop is expected to be minimal. The national paddy output is preliminarily forecast to reach 72 million tonnes, similar to last year’s record level.

The overall prospects for the 2014 main (rainy) season maize crop, currently being harvested, are also generally good. Production is preliminarily forecast at 19.1 million tonnes, some 3 percent above last year’s dry weather-affected harvest and slightly below the 2012 record output.

Cereal imports estimated high in 2013/14 marketing year (April/March)

Indonesia is one of the biggest importers of cereals with quantities of some 10 million tonnes annually. For the 2013/14 marketing year (April/March) wheat imports are estimated to have increased to 7.1 million tonnes, some 6 percent higher than in the previous year, reflecting higher demand for the commodity.

Rice imports in 2013 are put at 700 000 tonnes, less than half of the volume imported in 2012 and much lower than the actual rice imports of 2.9 million tonnes in 2011. Imports of maize are estimated at 2.2 million tonnes, an increase of 10 percent compared to the 2012/13 above-average level on account of the reduction in the 2013 maize harvest.

The total cereal imports for the 2013/14 marketing year (April/March) are thus estimated at 10.1 million tonnes, slightly below the large purchases of the previous year but about 14 percent above the five-year average.

Rice prices at record levels in nominal terms

The average price of medium quality rice, after strengthening in recent months due to uncertainty about flood damage to the 2014 crop, increased only marginally in March reaching a new record, in nominal terms. At their March level, rice prices were 8 percent higher than a year earlier in line with the year-on-year food inflation of 7.3 percent.

TheCropSite News Desk



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