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Jim Wyckoff's Morning Report: Russia-Ukraine Back on Front Burner

08 April 2014
Jim Wyckoff Commentary -  TheCropSite

GLOBAL - The Russia-Ukraine matter is back on the front burner of the market place Tuesday. Pro-Russian demonstrators in Ukraine are becoming more active.

This situation could flare up quickly and once again become a geopolitical flash point. Gold prices are posting good gains Tuesday, due in part to some fresh safe-haven demand due to the increase in Russia-Ukraine tensions.

Traders and investors are looking ahead to Wednesday afternoon’s release of the minutes of the latest meeting of the Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee (FOMC). Data from the Fed have become key inflection points for the market place the past several months. Other than the monthly employment report from the Labor Department, it seems other U.S. economic data has become diminished in importance during the past several months.

U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday includes the IMF world economic outlook forecasts, NFIB small business index, and the weekly Goldman Sachs and Johnson Redbook retail sales reports. Federal Reserve officials are again on tap to speak Tuesday, which will garner the attention of the market place.

Wyckoff’s Daily Risk Rating: 6.0 (The Russia-Ukraine tensions are moving closer to the front burner of the market place.)

(Wyckoff’s Daily Risk Rating is your way to quickly gauge investor risk appetite in the world market place each day. Each day I assess the “risk-on” or “risk-off” trader mentality in the market place with a numerical reading of 1 to 10, with 1 being least risk-averse (most risk-on) and 10 being the most risk-averse (risk-off), and 5 being neutral.

--Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 June e-mini futures: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. A bearish “key reversal” down on the daily bar chart last Friday is a technical clue that a market top is in place. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9- and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the overnight high of 1,843.50 and then at 1,850.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders today is located at Monday’s low of 1,834.50 and then at the March low of 1,823.50. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5

Nasdaq index futures: Prices are near steady early today after hitting a two-month low Monday. Bears have downside technical momentum. The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is located at 3,525.00 and then at Monday’s high of 3,535.50. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen at Monday’s low of 3,473.00 and then at 3,450.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5.

Dow futures: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading today. A bearish “key reversal” down has occurred on the daily bar chart, which is one technical clue that a market top is in place. Buy stops likely reside just above technical resistance at 16,200 and then at 16,250. Sell stops likely reside just below technical support at 16,100 and then at 16,050. Shorter-term moving averages are still bullish early today, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day moving average is above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are near steady early today. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage and have regained some near-term momentum. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at Monday’s high of 133 23/32 and then at 134 even. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 133 8/32 and then at 133 even. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are slightly lower early today. Bulls have regained some upside momentum. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at Monday’s high of 124.00.0 and then at 124.08.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 123.22.5 and then at 123.16.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The June U.S. dollar index is lower in early trading as the bulls are quickly fading again. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are bearish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 80.350 and then at 80.500. Shorter-term support is seen at 80.000 and then at 79.900. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

May Nymex crude oil prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the slight overall near-term technical advantage.
In May Nymex crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at the overnight high of $101.44 and then at $101.63. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $100.68 and then at $100.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

GRAINS

Markets were mixed in overnight trading. Corn and wheat were weaker and soybeans steady. Focus is turning to U.S. corn planting. On Wednesday is the USDA monthly supply and demand report. In wheat, the bulls have faded and need to more power soon. Corn and soybean bulls still have the firm technical advantage heading into the critical U.S. planting and growing season.

TheCropSite News Desk

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%): 1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.



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