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Ecuador's Total Sugar Production Forecast to Rise

16 April 2014
USDA Foreign Agricultural Service

ECUADOR - FAS Quito forecasts Ecuador’s total sugar production in marketing year (MY) 2014/15 (May/April) reaching 615,000 metric tons (MT), up some 38,000 MT or 6.5 per cent from our MY 2013/14 estimate.

FAS Quito is estimating sugar production in MY 2013/14 coming in around 577,000 metric tons, or down some 55,000 MT or off nearly nine per cent compared the MY 2012/13 levels.

FAS Quito's MY 2014/15 forecast is subject to no major production disruptions induced by an El Niño event commencing in the third quarter of 2014. Reportedly some meteorologists are anticipating the possibility of an El Niño that could rival the devastation wrought by the 1997/98 event.

Since 6 March 2014, an El Niño watch has been in place. Reportedly there is now a 50 per cent chance of an El Niño of any variety (i.e., weak, moderate or strong) occurring in 2014; normally there is a 33 per cent chance of one occurring.

FAS Quito forecasts total human domestic consumption in MY 2014/15 at 604,000 MT, up some 5,000 MT or 1 per cent compared to our MY 2013/14 estimate of 599,000 MT.

We find that around 65 per cent of the country’s sugar consumption ultimately is the form of direct human use (namely as white, brown or specialty sugars). The balance goes toward industrial use.

FAS Quito forecasts Ecuador’s sugar exports in MY 2014/15 at 13,000 MT, up 1,000 MT or 8 per cent compared to our MY 2013/14 estimate of 12,000 MT. Ecuador is self-sufficient in the production of refined sugar for domestic consumption, making imports unnecessary.

Further Reading

You can view the USDA GAIN: Ecuador Sugar Annual 2014 report by clicking here.

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