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Jim Wyckoff's Morning Report: No Simmering Down for Russia-Ukraine Crisis

17 April 2014
Jim Wyckoff Commentary -  TheCropSite

GLOBAL - The Russia-Ukraine crisis is not simmering down. A foreign ministers meeting including officials from the U.S., Russia, Ukraine and the European Union got under way in Geneva, Switzerland Thursday to try to de-escalate the situation.

The U.S. is leading an effort to slap further economic and diplomatic sanctions on Russia. As the three-day Easter holiday weekend approaches, it would not be surprising to see the safe-haven assets, including gold, see buying interest surface and to see the market place move into a “risk-off” mode. The Russia-Ukraine crisis could escalate into an international crisis in a hurry.

European stock markets were weaker Thursday, following their recent rallies. The Ukraine crisis prompted some selling interest heading into the weekend. However, selling pressure in European equities was limited by perceived dovish monetary policy comments from U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen on Wednesday afternoon. U.S. stock indexes were slightly weaker in early electronic trading Thursday.

U.S. economic data due for release Thursday includes the weekly jobless claims report and the Philadelphia Fed business survey.

Wyckoff’s Daily Risk Rating: 7.5 (The Russia-Ukraine tensions are on the front burner of the market place heading into a three-day holiday weekend.)

(Wyckoff’s Daily Risk Rating is your way to quickly gauge investor risk appetite in the world market place each day. Each day I assess the “risk-on” or “risk-off” trader mentality in the market place with a numerical reading of 1 to 10, with 1 being least risk-averse (most risk-on) and 10 being the most risk-averse (risk-off), and 5 being neutral.

--Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 June e-mini futures: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading, on a corrective pullback from three days of upside price action this week. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at Thursday’s high of 1,857.00 and then at 1,867.50. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders today is located at Thursday’s low of 1,840.50 and then at 1,830.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 5.0

Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly higher early today on more short covering and bargain hunting after hitting a nine-week low on Tuesday. The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are still bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is located at Wednesday’s high of 3,525.00 and then at 3,550.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen at Wednesday’s low of 3,479.00 and then at 3,465.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.

Dow futures: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading today. Still, bulls are having a good week. Buy stops likely reside just above technical resistance Wednesday’s high of 16,360 and then at 16,400. Sell stops likely reside just below technical support at Thursday’s low of 16,255 and then at 16,200. Shorter-term moving averages are still bearish early today, as the 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day moving average is below the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are slightly lower early today on mild profit taking after prices hit a contract high Tuesday. Bulls still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 135 4/32 and then at the contract high of 135 10/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at 134 16/32 and then at this week’s low of 134 8/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are near steady early today. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are still bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 124.17.5 and then at 124.24.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at this week’s low of 124.09.5 and then at 124.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The June U.S. dollar index is weaker in early trading. The bears have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are neutral early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 79.870 and then at 80.000. Shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 79.620 and then at 79.500. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

May Nymex crude oil prices are near steady in early U.S. trading and seeing a pause after hitting a contract high on Wednesday. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. In May Nymex crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at the overnight high of $104.28 and then at the contract high of $104.99. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $103.50 and then at $103.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

GRAINS

Markets were firmer in overnight trading. Soybeans hit another contract high overnight. Traders will closely scrutinize this morning’s weekly USDA export sales data.
Weather in the central U.S. has been cold and wet recently as U.S. corn planters wait to roll. The cold U.S. weather and the heightened Russia-Ukraine tensions are bullish for corn and wheat. Soybeans are seeing tight U.S. stocks and good worldwide demand. Technically, wheat bulls have the slight technical edge. Corn and soybean bulls have the firm near-term technical advantage.

TheCropSite News Desk

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%): 1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.



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