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Jim Wyckoff's Morning Report: Russia-Ukraine on Back Burner for Now

Jim Wyckoff's Morning Report: Russia-Ukraine on Back Burner for Now

21 April 2014
Jim Wyckoff Commentary -  TheCropSite

ANALYSIS - Many European and Asian markets are closed Monday due to the Easter holiday, which made for subdued trading and a lack of fresh news coming from Europe and Asia.

The Russia-Ukraine crisis has de-escalated for the moment. Reports said the US and Russia have agreed to work to tamp down this geopolitical flashpoint. US Vice President Joe Biden is heading to Kiev early this week for talks with Ukrainian officials.

US economic data due for release Monday includes the Chicago Fed national activity index and leading economic indicators.

Wyckoff’s Daily Risk Rating: 6.0 (The Russia-Ukraine tensions are now at least temporarily on the back burner the market place.)

US STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 June e-mini futures: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls have regained some upside technical momentum recently. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at last week’s high of 1,863.75 and then at 1,867.50. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders today is located at 1,850.00 and then at 1,840.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly higher early today. The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is located at last week’s high of 3,543.00 and then at 3,550.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen at 3,525.00 and then at 3,500.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.

Dow futures: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading today. Buy stops likely reside just above technical resistance 16,400 and then at 16,450. Sell stops likely reside just below technical support at Friday’s low of 16,305 and then at 16,250. Shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day moving average is below the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

US TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are slightly lower early today on more profit taking after prices hit a contract high last week. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are still bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 134 3/32 and then at 134 16/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at last week’s low of 133 19/32 and then at 133 even. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are slightly lower early today. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 123.28.0 and then at 124.00.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at last week’s low of 123.20.0 and then at 123.16.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

US DOLLAR INDEX

The June US dollar index is slightly higher in early trading. The bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are bullish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 80.000 and then at 80.150. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 79.865 and then at 79.750. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

June Nymex crude oil prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading, on mild profit taking after prices hit a contract high last week. Bulls still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. In June Nymex crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at the overnight high of $104.63 and then at the contract high of $104.99. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $103.50 and then at $103.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

GRAINS

Markets were weaker in overnight trading, on profit taking and on expected good corn planting progress made in the U.S. Corn Belt this past weekend. Traders will scrutinize this morning’s weekly USDA export inspections report. Technically, wheat bulls have the slight technical edge. Corn and soybean bulls have the firm near-term technical advantage.

(Wyckoff’s Daily Risk Rating is your way to quickly gauge investor risk appetite in the world market place each day. Each day I assess the “risk-on” or “risk-off” trader mentality in the market place with a numerical reading of 1 to 10, with 1 being least risk-averse (most risk-on) and 10 being the most risk-averse (risk-off), and 5 being neutral.

--Jim

TheCropSite News Desk

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%): 1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.



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