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Jim Wyckoff's Morning Report: Markets Quiet While Anticipating Data

29 April 2014
Jim Wyckoff Commentary -  TheCropSite

GLOBAL - Asian and European stock and financial markets were quiet overnight, focusing on corporate earnings reports and awaiting key economic data due out this week.

This is a very busy week of U.S. economic data, highlighted by the latest FOMC meeting of the Federal Reserve on Tuesday and Wednesday, the gross domestic product report on Wednesday and the Labor Department’s jobs report on Friday. Other key U.S. reports are scattered throughout the week. On Thursday there is also important manufacturing data coming out of China. Markets will likely be impacted by this week’s heavy slate of economic data.

The Russia-Ukraine crisis is still at the forefront of the world market place this week. The situation has not de-escalated and remains on a medium boil as far as the markets are concerned. The U.S. and European Union slapped new sanctions on Russia Monday. Many reckoned the new sanctions might be stiffer than they were. This situation is still a major markets matter and will likely deteriorate before it gets any better. Gold and other safe-haven assets will likely at least see selling interest limited due to the instability in Ukraine.

Reports from Asia continue to cite slack demand for physical gold in that region.

U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday includes the weekly Johnson Redbook and Goldman Sachs retail sales reports, the S&P/Case-Shiller home price index, and the consumer confidence index. Day one of the FOMC meeting is also Tuesday.

Wyckoff’s Daily Risk Rating: 7.0 (The Russia-Ukraine tensions are still high early this week.)

(Wyckoff’s Daily Risk Rating is your way to quickly gauge investor risk appetite in the world market place each day. Each day I assess the “risk-on” or “risk-off” trader mentality in the market place with a numerical reading of 1 to 10, with 1 being least risk-averse (most risk-on) and 10 being the most risk-averse (risk-off), and 5 being neutral.

--Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 June e-mini futures: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading and are not too far from the record high. Bulls are in technical control. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are still bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at last week’s high of 1,882.50 and then at the record high of 1,892.50. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders today is located at the overnight low of 1,865.00 and then at 1,853.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0

Nasdaq index futures: Prices are higher early today. The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are still bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is located at Monday’s high of 3,564.00 and then at 3,575.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen at the overnight low of 3,546.00 and then at 3,525.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0.

Dow futures: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading today. Buy stops likely reside just above technical resistance at 16,500 and then at the record high of 16,555. Sell stops likely reside just below technical support at 16,400 and then at 16,350. Shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day moving average is above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are solidly lower early today on more profit taking from recent gains. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are still bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 134 15/32 and then at Monday’s high of 134 30/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at 133 24/32 and then at 133 14/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower early today. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 123.31.0 and then at Monday’s high of 124.06.5. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 123.24.0 and then at 123.16.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The June U.S. dollar index is weaker again in early trading. The bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are bullish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at Monday’s high of 79.910 and then at 80.065. Shorter-term support is seen at Monday’s low of 79.615 and then at 79.500. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

June Nymex crude oil prices are firmer in early U.S. trading, on more short covering following recent selling pressure. In June Nymex crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at Monday’s high of $101.52 and then at $102.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $100.81 and then at Monday’s low of $100.33. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

GRAINS

Markets were mixed in overnight trading. The corn market still sees support from planting delays in the U.S. Corn Belt. Soybean bulls have the solid overall technical advantage amid tight domestic stocks. Wheat bulls also have the chart advantage. A poor U.S. winter wheat crop is bullish for the wheat market. The Russia-Ukraine crisis is a bullish underlying factor for corn and wheat. For the next few months weather in the central U.S. will be a major market factor for the grains.

TheCropSite News Desk

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%): 1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.



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