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Jim Wyckoff's Morning Report:

09 June 2014
Jim Wyckoff Commentary -  TheCropSite

GLOBAL - U.S. stock indexes are slightly lower in early trading, on profit taking from recent gains. Asian and European stock markets were firmer overnight, following the lead of the U.S. stock market Friday.

The European stock market also saw lingering benefits from last week’s European Central Bank meeting that saw the ECB embark on another round of monetary policy stimulus.

A main theme in the market place continues to be the bull market runs in U.S. and other major world stock markets. With many of the leading world stock indexes at or near record or multi-year highs, other asset classes like raw commodities, including gold and silver, have seen trader and investor buying interest limited. With extremely low interest rates and scant worries about inflationary price pressures at present, “paper assets” like stocks and bonds have fared better, compared to “hard” assets that tend to see better demand during times of inflation or keener geopolitical uncertainty.

In other overnight news, economic data from China showed Chinese imports decreased by 1.6% in May versus April. A 6% rise in imports was forecast.

U.S. economic data due for release Monday is light and includes the employment trends index.

Wyckoff’s Daily Risk Rating: 5.5 (The Russia-Ukraine crisis has died down in the eyes of the market place, while the rest of the world is also quiet on the geopolitics front.)

(Wyckoff’s Daily Risk Rating is your way to quickly gauge investor risk appetite in the world market place each day. Each day I assess the “risk-on” or “risk-off” trader mentality in the market place with a numerical reading of 1 to 10, with 1 being least risk-averse (most risk-on) and 10 being the most risk-averse (risk-off), and 5 being neutral.

US Stock Indexes

S&P 500 September e-mini futures: Prices are slightly lower in early trading and hovering near the record high scored Friday. Bulls are in solid overall near-term technical control. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the record high of 1,942.50 and then at 1,950.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders today is located at Friday’s low of 1,930.25 and then at 1,913.50. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 5.0

Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly lower early today and hovering near Friday’s 13-year high. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at Friday’s high of 3,800.00 and then at 3,815.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen at Friday’s low of 3,777.00 and then at 3,760.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0.

Dow futures: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading and hovering near Friday’s record high. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Buy stops likely reside just above technical resistance at 16,950 and then at 17,000. Sell stops likely reside just below technical support at 16,900 and then at Friday’s low of 16,855. Shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day moving average is above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

US Treasury Bonds and Notes

September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are weaker early today. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage but have faded. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 135 16/32 and then at 136 even. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at 135 even and then at last week’s low of 134 15/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are weaker in early trading today. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage, but have faded recently. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 124.12.5 and then at 124.16.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at last week’s low of 124.01.0 and then at 124.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

US Dollar Index

The September U.S. dollar index is slightly higher in early trading. Bulls have the slight overall near-term technical advantage. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are bearish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at Friday’s high of 80.665 and then at 80.830. Shorter-term support is seen at last week’s low of 80.375 and then at 80.250. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX Crude Oil

July Nymex crude oil prices are higher in early U.S. trading, on short covering. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. In July Nymex crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at last week’s high of $103.69 and then at $104.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $102.62 and then at $102.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

Grains

Markets were mostly weaker in overnight trading. Weather in the U.S. Corn Belt is now benign for the corn and soybean crops, and that’s bearish for prices. So far, and in the extended forecast for the Corn Belt, no threatening weather for the crops is in the cards. Traders will watch this week’s USDA reports for clues on supply and demand for gains. The next major inflection point for the grains could be the U.S. Fourth of July holiday timeframe, which history shows grain prices can reverse trends or accelerate them. Technically, soybean bulls have the near-term advantage, but have faded a bit. Wheat and corn bears have the firm near-term technical edge.

TheCropSite News Desk

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%): 1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.



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